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Nash SIR: An Economic-Epidemiological Model of Strategic Behavior During a Viral Epidemic

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  • David McAdams

Abstract

This paper develops a Nash-equilibrium extension of the classic SIR model of infectious-disease epidemiology ("Nash SIR"), endogenizing people's decisions whether to engage in economic activity during a viral epidemic and allowing for complementarity in social-economic activity. An equilibrium epidemic is one in which Nash equilibrium behavior during the epidemic generates the epidemic. There may be multiple equilibrium epidemics, in which case the epidemic trajectory can be shaped through the coordination of expectations, in addition to other sorts of interventions such as stay-at-home orders and accelerated vaccine development. An algorithm is provided to compute all equilibrium epidemics.

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  • David McAdams, 2020. "Nash SIR: An Economic-Epidemiological Model of Strategic Behavior During a Viral Epidemic," Papers 2006.10109, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2006.10109
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    Cited by:

    1. Makris, M. & Toxvaerd, F., 2020. "Great Expectations: Social Distancing in Anticipation of Pharmaceutical Innovations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2097, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Luiz Brotherhood & Philipp Kircher & Cezar Santos & Michèle Tertilt, 2020. "An Economic Model of the Covid-19 Epidemic: The Importance of Testing and Age-Specific Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 8316, CESifo.
    3. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    4. Jacek Rothert & Ryan Brady & Michael Insler, 2020. "The Fragmented United States of America: The impact of scattered lock-down policies on country-wide infections," Departmental Working Papers 65, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    5. Goodkin-Gold, Matthew & Kremer, Michael & Snyder, Christopher M. & Williams, Heidi, 2022. "Optimal vaccine subsidies for endemic diseases," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Carnehl, Christoph & Fukuda, Satoshi & Kos, Nenad, 2023. "Epidemics with behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    7. Pietro Garibaldi & Espen R. Moen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2024. "Static and dynamic inefficiencies in an optimizing model of epidemics," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 9-48, February.
    8. Rahul Deb & Mallesh Pai & Akhil Vohra & Rakesh Vohra, 2022. "Testing alone is insufficient," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 26(1), pages 1-21, March.
    9. Lu Gram & Rolando Granados & Eva M. Krockow & Nayreen Daruwalla & David Osrin, 2021. "Modelling collective action to change social norms around domestic violence: social dilemmas and the role of altruism," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Chernozhukov, Victor & Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Schrimpf, Paul, 2021. "Causal impact of masks, policies, behavior on early covid-19 pandemic in the U.S," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 23-62.
    11. Christopher Avery, 2021. "A Simple Model of Social Distancing and Vaccination," NBER Working Papers 29463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Christoph Carnehl & Satoshi Fukuda & Nenad Kos, 2022. "Time-varying Cost of Distancing: Distancing Fatigue and Lockdowns," Papers 2206.03847, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    13. Toxvaerd, F.M.O., 2021. "Contacts, Altruism and Competing Externalities," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2135, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Nicholas W. Papageorge, 2021. "Modeling Behavior during a Pandemic: Using HIV as an Historical Analogy," NBER Working Papers 28898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. McAdams, David & Song, Yangbo & Zou, Dihan, 2023. "Equilibrium social activity during an epidemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    16. Joshua S. Gans, 2020. "The Economic Consequences of R̂ = 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics," NBER Working Papers 27632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Luiz Brotherhood, 2020. "An economic model of the Covid-19 pandemic with young and old agents: Behavior, testing and policies," Working Papers w202014, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michèle, 2023. "Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13295, Inter-American Development Bank.
    19. Arazi, R. & Feigel, A., 2021. "Discontinuous transitions of social distancing in the SIR model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 566(C).
    20. Jacek Rothert & Ryan Brady & Michael Insler, 2020. "Local containment policies and country-wide spread of Covid-19 in the United States: an epidemiological analysis," GRAPE Working Papers 48, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.

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