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The Anatomy of a Cryptocurrency Pump-and-Dump Scheme

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  • Jiahua Xu
  • Benjamin Livshits

Abstract

While pump-and-dump schemes have attracted the attention of cryptocurrency observers and regulators alike, this paper represents the first detailed empirical query of pump-and-dump activities in cryptocurrency markets. We present a case study of a recent pump-and-dump event, investigate 412 pump-and-dump activities organized in Telegram channels from June 17, 2018 to February 26, 2019, and discover patterns in crypto-markets associated with pump-and-dump schemes. We then build a model that predicts the pump likelihood of all coins listed in a crypto-exchange prior to a pump. The model exhibits high precision as well as robustness, and can be used to create a simple, yet very effective trading strategy, which we empirically demonstrate can generate a return as high as 60% on small retail investments within a span of two and half months. The study provides a proof of concept for strategic crypto-trading and sheds light on the application of machine learning for crime detection.

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  • Jiahua Xu & Benjamin Livshits, 2018. "The Anatomy of a Cryptocurrency Pump-and-Dump Scheme," Papers 1811.10109, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1811.10109
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Neil Gandal & J. T. Hamrick & Tyler Moore & Marie Vasek, 2021. "The rise and fall of cryptocurrency coins and tokens," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 981-1014, December.
    2. Friedhelm Victor & Andrea Marie Weintraud, 2021. "Detecting and Quantifying Wash Trading on Decentralized Cryptocurrency Exchanges," Papers 2102.07001, arXiv.org.
    3. Arthur A. B. Pessa & Matjaz Perc & Haroldo V. Ribeiro, 2023. "Age and market capitalization drive large price variations of cryptocurrencies," Papers 2302.12319, arXiv.org.
    4. Niklas Konstantin Klein & Fritz Lattermann & Dirk Schiereck, 2023. "Investment in non-fungible tokens (NFTs): the return of Ethereum secondary market NFT sales," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(4), pages 241-254, July.
    5. Costola, Michele & Iacopini, Matteo & Santagiustina, Carlo R.M.A., 2021. "On the “mementum” of meme stocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    6. Erdinc Akyildirim & Matteo Gambara & Josef Teichmann & Syang Zhou, 2022. "Applications of Signature Methods to Market Anomaly Detection," Papers 2201.02441, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    7. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Rouhi, Farhang & Mukherjee, Arghya & Feder, Amir & Moore, Tyler & Vasek, Marie, 2018. "The Economics of Cryptocurrency Pump and Dump Schemes," CEPR Discussion Papers 13404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Davide Debortoli & Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2020. "Asymmetric monetary policy tradeoffs," Economics Working Papers 1742, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2023.
    9. Kaihua Qin & Liyi Zhou & Yaroslav Afonin & Ludovico Lazzaretti & Arthur Gervais, 2021. "CeFi vs. DeFi -- Comparing Centralized to Decentralized Finance," Papers 2106.08157, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    10. Sihao Hu & Zhen Zhang & Shengliang Lu & Bingsheng He & Zhao Li, 2022. "Sequence-Based Target Coin Prediction for Cryptocurrency Pump-and-Dump," Papers 2204.12929, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    11. Dean Fantazzini & Yufeng Xiao, 2023. "Detecting Pump-and-Dumps with Crypto-Assets: Dealing with Imbalanced Datasets and Insiders’ Anticipated Purchases," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-73, August.
    12. Anirudh Dhawan & Tālis J Putniņš, 2023. "A New Wolf in Town? Pump-and-Dump Manipulation in Cryptocurrency Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 935-975.
    13. Mohammad Javad Rajaei & Qusay H. Mahmoud, 2023. "A Survey on Pump and Dump Detection in the Cryptocurrency Market Using Machine Learning," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-17, August.
    14. Daniel Kirste & Niclas Kannengie{ss}er & Ricky Lamberty & Ali Sunyaev, 2023. "How Automated Market Makers Approach the Thin Market Problem in Cryptoeconomic Systems," Papers 2309.12818, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    15. Taro Tsuchiya, 2021. "Profitability of cryptocurrency Pump and Dump schemes," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 149-167, June.
    16. David Ardia & Keven Bluteau, 2023. "The Role of Twitter in Cryptocurrency Pump-and-Dumps," Papers 2306.02148, arXiv.org.

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