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Predictable Forward Performance Processes: The Binomial Case

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  • Bahman Angoshtari
  • Thaleia Zariphopoulou
  • Xun Yu Zhou

Abstract

We introduce a new class of forward performance processes that are endogenous and predictable with regards to an underlying market information set and, furthermore, are updated at discrete times. We analyze in detail a binomial model whose parameters are random and updated dynamically as the market evolves. We show that the key step in the construction of the associated predictable forward performance process is to solve a single-period inverse investment problem, namely, to determine, period-by-period and conditionally on the current market information, the end-time utility function from a given initial-time value function. We reduce this inverse problem to solving a functional equation and establish conditions for the existence and uniqueness of its solutions in the class of inverse marginal functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahman Angoshtari & Thaleia Zariphopoulou & Xun Yu Zhou, 2016. "Predictable Forward Performance Processes: The Binomial Case," Papers 1611.04494, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1611.04494
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
    2. M. Musiela & T. Zariphopoulou, 2009. "Portfolio choice under dynamic investment performance criteria," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 161-170.
    3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    4. Mykhaylo Shkolnikov & Ronnie Sircar & Thaleia Zariphopoulou, 2015. "Asymptotic analysis of forward performance processes in incomplete markets and their ill-posed HJB equations," Papers 1504.03209, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2015.
    5. M. Musiela & T. Zariphopoulou, 2011. "Initial Investment Choice And Optimal Future Allocations Under Time-Monotone Performance Criteria," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(01), pages 61-81.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chong, Wing Fung, 2019. "Pricing and hedging equity-linked life insurance contracts beyond the classical paradigm: The principle of equivalent forward preferences," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 93-107.
    2. Xue Dong He & Moris S. Strub & Thaleia Zariphopoulou, 2019. "Forward Rank-Dependent Performance Criteria: Time-Consistent Investment Under Probability Distortion," Papers 1904.01745, arXiv.org.

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