IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1504.04682.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Multiple Trading Times Under the Exponential OU Model with Transaction Costs

Author

Listed:
  • Tim Leung
  • Xin Li
  • Zheng Wang

Abstract

This paper studies the timing of trades under mean-reverting price dynamics subject to fixed transaction costs. We solve an optimal double stopping problem to determine the optimal times to enter and subsequently exit the market, when prices are driven by an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. In addition, we analyze a related optimal switching problem that involves an infinite sequence of trades, and identify the conditions under which the double stopping and switching problems admit the same optimal entry and/or exit timing strategies. Among our results, we find that the investor generally enters when the price is low, but may find it optimal to wait if the current price is sufficiently close to zero. In other words, the continuation (waiting) region for entry is disconnected. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the dependence of timing strategies on model parameters and transaction costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Leung & Xin Li & Zheng Wang, 2015. "Optimal Multiple Trading Times Under the Exponential OU Model with Transaction Costs," Papers 1504.04682, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1504.04682
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1504.04682
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bessembinder, Hendrik, et al, 1995. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices: Evidence from the Futures Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 361-375, March.
    2. Tim Leung & Peng Liu, 2012. "Risk Premia And Optimal Liquidation Of Credit Derivatives," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(08), pages 1-34.
    3. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    4. Albert Shiryaev & Zuoquan Xu & Xun Yu Zhou, 2008. "Response to comment on 'Thou shalt buy and hold'," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 761-762.
    5. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
    6. Metcalf, Gilbert E. & Hassett, Kevin A., 1995. "Investment under alternative return assumptions Comparing random walks and mean reversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1471-1488, November.
    7. Dayanik, Savas & Karatzas, Ioannis, 2003. "On the optimal stopping problem for one-dimensional diffusions," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 173-212, October.
    8. Albert Shiryaev & Zuoquan Xu & Xun Yu Zhou, 2008. "Thou shalt buy and hold," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 765-776.
    9. Tim Leung & Xin Li, 2015. "Optimal Mean Reversion Trading With Transaction Costs And Stop-Loss Exit," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-31.
    10. Tim Leung & Michael Ludkovski, 2010. "Optimal Timing to Purchase Options," Papers 1008.3650, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2011.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tim Leung & Jiao Li & Xin Li & Zheng Wang, 2016. "Speculative Futures Trading under Mean Reversion," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(4), pages 281-304, December.
    2. Zuo Quan Xu & Fahuai Yi, 2019. "Optimal redeeming strategy of stock loans under drift uncertainty," Papers 1901.06680, arXiv.org.
    3. Peng Huang & Tianxiang Wang, 2016. "On the Profitability of Optimal Mean Reversion Trading Strategies," Papers 1602.05858, arXiv.org.
    4. Tim Leung & Hongzhong Zhang, 2017. "Optimal Trading with a Trailing Stop," Papers 1701.03960, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    5. Jiao Li, 2016. "Trading VIX futures under mean reversion with regime switching," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Alex S. L. Tse & Harry Zheng, 2023. "Speculative trading, prospect theory and transaction costs," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 49-96, January.
    7. Guo, Kevin & Leung, Tim, 2017. "Understanding the non-convergence of agricultural futures via stochastic storage costs and timing options," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 32-49.
    8. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Tim Leung, 2017. "Optimal mean-reverting spread trading: nonlinear integral equation approach," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 181-203, May.
    9. Hongzhong Zhang, 2018. "Stochastic Drawdowns," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10078, January.
    10. Jiao Li, 2016. "Trading VIX Futures under Mean Reversion with Regime Switching," Papers 1605.07945, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    11. Dahlgren, Eric & Leung, Tim, 2015. "An optimal multiple stopping approach to infrastructure investment decisions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 251-267.
    12. Tim Leung & Zheng Wang, 2019. "Optimal risk-averse timing of an asset sale: trending versus mean-reverting price dynamics," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28, March.
    13. Alex S. L. Tse & Harry Zheng, 2019. "Speculative Trading, Prospect Theory and Transaction Costs," Papers 1911.10106, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    14. Tim Leung & Xin Li & Zheng Wang, 2014. "Optimal Starting-Stopping and Switching of a CIR Process with Fixed Costs," Papers 1411.6080, arXiv.org.
    15. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Tim Leung, 2018. "Mean Reversion Trading With Sequential Deadlines And Transaction Costs," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(01), pages 1-22, February.
    16. Tim Leung & Zheng Wang, 2016. "Optimal Risk-Averse Timing of an Asset Sale: Trending vs Mean-Reverting Price Dynamics," Papers 1610.08143, arXiv.org.
    17. Phong Luu & Jingzhi Tie & Qing Zhang, 2018. "A Threshold Type Policy for Trading a Mean-Reverting Asset with Fixed Transaction Costs," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-15, September.
    18. Zuo Quan Xu & Fahuai Yi, 2020. "Optimal Redeeming Strategy of Stock Loans Under Drift Uncertainty," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 45(1), pages 384-401, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nader Karimi & Hirbod Assa & Erfan Salavati & Hojatollah Adibi, 2023. "Calibration of Storage Model by Multi-Stage Statistical and Machine Learning Methods," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(4), pages 1437-1455, December.
    2. Tim Leung & Jiao Li & Xin Li & Zheng Wang, 2016. "Speculative Futures Trading under Mean Reversion," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(4), pages 281-304, December.
    3. Tim Leung & Xin Li & Zheng Wang, 2014. "Optimal Starting-Stopping and Switching of a CIR Process with Fixed Costs," Papers 1411.6080, arXiv.org.
    4. Hongzhong Zhang, 2018. "Stochastic Drawdowns," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10078, January.
    5. Bai, Yizhou & Xue, Cheng, 2021. "An empirical study on the regulated Chinese agricultural commodity futures market based on skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Ames, Matthew & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Matsui, Tomoko & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2020. "Which risk factors drive oil futures price curves?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying & Zhao, Jing, 2015. "Commodity derivatives pricing with cointegration and stochastic covariances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(2), pages 476-486.
    8. Sabri Boubaker & Zhenya Liu & Yaosong Zhan, 2022. "Risk management for crude oil futures: an optimal stopping-timing approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 9-27, June.
    9. Jiao Li, 2016. "Trading VIX Futures under Mean Reversion with Regime Switching," Papers 1605.07945, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    10. Jiao Li, 2016. "Trading VIX futures under mean reversion with regime switching," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-20, September.
    11. Max F. Schöne & Stefan Spinler, 2017. "A four-factor stochastic volatility model of commodity prices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 135-165, July.
    12. Chiu, Hsin-Yu & Chen, Ting-Fu, 2020. "Impact of volatility jumps in a mean-reverting model: Derivative pricing and empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    13. Ron Alquist & Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2014. "What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?," Staff Working Papers 14-42, Bank of Canada.
    14. Chad E. Hart & Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes & Na Jin, 2016. "Price Mean Reversion, Seasonality, and Options Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(3), pages 707-725.
    15. Peter Berling & Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz, 2011. "Optimal Inventory Policies when Purchase Price and Demand Are Stochastic," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 109-124, February.
    16. Tim Leung & Hongzhong Zhang, 2017. "Optimal Trading with a Trailing Stop," Papers 1701.03960, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    17. Ke Tang, 2012. "Time-varying long-run mean of commodity prices and the modeling of futures term structures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 781-790, April.
    18. Tim Leung & Xin Li, 2015. "Optimal Mean Reversion Trading With Transaction Costs And Stop-Loss Exit," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-31.
    19. Bisht Deepak & Laha, A. K., 2017. "Pricing Option on Commodity Futures under String Shock," IIMA Working Papers WP 2017-07-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    20. Xiongfei Jian & Xun Li & Fahuai Yi, 2014. "Optimal Investment with Stopping in Finite Horizon," Papers 1406.6940, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1504.04682. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.