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Bayesian DEJD model and detection of asymmetric jumps

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  • Maciej Kostrzewski
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    Abstract

    News might trigger jump arrivals in financial time series. The "bad" and "good" news seems to have distinct impact. In the research, a double exponential jump distribution is applied to model downward and upward jumps. Bayesian double exponential jump-diffusion model is proposed. Theorems stated in the paper enable estimation of the model's parameters, detection of jumps and analysis of jump frequency. The methodology, founded upon the idea of latent variables, is illustrated with two empirical studies, employing both simulated and real-world data (the KGHM index). News might trigger jump arrivals in financial time series. The "bad" and "good" news seems to have distinct impact. In the research, a double exponential jump distribution is applied to model downward and upward jumps. Bayesian double exponential jump-diffusion model is proposed. Theorems stated in the paper enable estimation of the model's parameters, detection of jumps and analysis of jump frequency. The methodology, founded upon the idea of latent variables, is illustrated with two empirical studies, employing both simulated and real-world data (the KGHM index).

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1404.2050
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1404.2050.

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    Date of creation: Apr 2014
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    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1404.2050

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    1. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2003. "Impact of jumps on returns and realised variances: econometric analysis of time-deformed Levy processes," Economics Papers 2003-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    2. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variation ," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe01, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    3. Neil Shephard & Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2003. "Power and bipower variation with stochastic volatility and jumps," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-W18, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Suzanne S. Lee, 2012. "Jumps and Information Flow in Financial Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 439-479.
    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    6. S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
    7. Weron, Rafal, 2008. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1098-1115, May.
    8. Yu, Jialin, 2007. "Closed-form likelihood approximation and estimation of jump-diffusions with an application to the realignment risk of the Chinese Yuan," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1245-1280, December.
    9. Thierry Ane & Carole Metais, 2010. "Jump Distribution Characteristics: Evidence from European Stock Markets," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, April.
    10. Cyrus Ramezani & Yong Zeng, 2007. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the double exponential jump-diffusion process," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 487-507, October.
    11. Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1983. "A Simplified Jump Process for Common Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 53-65, March.
    12. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2004. "Power and Bipower Variation with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37.
    13. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
    14. Yacine A�t-Sahalia & Jean Jacod, 2012. "Analyzing the Spectrum of Asset Returns: Jump and Volatility Components in High Frequency Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1007-50, December.
    15. Paul R. Milgrom, 1981. "Good News and Bad News: Representation Theorems and Applications," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 380-391, Autumn.
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