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Consistent single- and multi-step sampling of multivariate arrival times: A characterization of self-chaining copulas

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  • Damiano Brigo
  • Kyriakos Chourdakis

Abstract

This paper deals with dependence across marginally exponentially distributed arrival times, such as default times in financial modeling or inter-failure times in reliability theory. We explore the relationship between dependence and the possibility to sample final multivariate survival in a long time-interval as a sequence of iterations of local multivariate survivals along a partition of the total time interval. We find that this is possible under a form of multivariate lack of memory that is linked to a property of the survival times copula. This property defines a "self-chaining-copula", and we show that this coincides with the extreme value copulas characterization. The self-chaining condition is satisfied by the Gumbel-Hougaard copula, a full characterization of self chaining copulas in the Archimedean family, and by the Marshall-Olkin copula. The result has important practical implications for consistent single-step and multi-step simulation of multivariate arrival times in a way that does not destroy dependency through iterations, as happens when inconsistently iterating a Gaussian copula.

Suggested Citation

  • Damiano Brigo & Kyriakos Chourdakis, 2012. "Consistent single- and multi-step sampling of multivariate arrival times: A characterization of self-chaining copulas," Papers 1204.2090, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1204.2090
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Damiano Brigo & Kyriakos Chourdakis, 2009. "Counterparty Risk For Credit Default Swaps: Impact Of Spread Volatility And Default Correlation," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(07), pages 1007-1026.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernhart German & Scherer Matthias & Mai Jan-Frederik, 2015. "On the construction of low-parametric families of min-stable multivariate exponential distributions in large dimensions," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Brigo, Damiano & Mai, Jan-Frederik & Scherer, Matthias, 2016. "Markov multi-variate survival indicators for default simulation as a new characterization of the Marshall–Olkin law," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 60-66.

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