IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v99y2021icp9-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the modelling of multivariate counts with Cox processes and dependent shot noise intensities

Author

Listed:
  • Avanzi, Benjamin
  • Taylor, Greg
  • Wong, Bernard
  • Yang, Xinda

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a method to model and estimate several, dependent count processes, using granular data. Specifically, we develop a multivariate Cox process with shot noise intensities to jointly model the arrival process of counts (e.g. insurance claims). The dependency structure is introduced via multivariate shot noise intensity processes which are connected with the help of Lévy copulas. In aggregate, our approach allows for (i) over-dispersion and auto-correlation within each line of business; (ii) realistic features involving time-varying, known covariates; and (iii) parsimonious dependence between processes without requiring simultaneous primary (e.g. accidents) events.

Suggested Citation

  • Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Wong, Bernard & Yang, Xinda, 2021. "On the modelling of multivariate counts with Cox processes and dependent shot noise intensities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 9-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:99:y:2021:i:c:p:9-24
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2021.01.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668721000032
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2021.01.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Larsen, Christian Roholte, 2007. "An Individual Claims Reserving Model," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 113-132, May.
    2. Badescu, Andrei L. & Lin, X. Sheldon & Tang, Dameng, 2016. "A marked Cox model for the number of IBNR claims: Theory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 29-37.
    3. Pigeon, Mathieu & Antonio, Katrien & Denuit, Michel, 2013. "Individual Loss Reserving With The Multivariate Skew Normal Framework," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 399-428, September.
    4. de Jong,Piet & Heller,Gillian Z., 2008. "Generalized Linear Models for Insurance Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521879149.
    5. Benjamin Avanzi & Greg Taylor & Bernard Wong & Alan Xian, 2020. "Modelling and understanding count processes through a Markov-modulated non-homogeneous Poisson process framework," Papers 2003.13888, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    6. Avanzi, Benjamin & Cassar, Luke C. & Wong, Bernard, 2011. "Modelling Dependence in Insurance Claims Processes with Lévy Copulas," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 575-609, November.
    7. Pigeon, Mathieu & Antonio, Katrien & Denuit, Michel, 2014. "Individual loss reserving using paid–incurred data," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 121-131.
    8. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Wong, Bernard, 2016. "Correlations Between Insurance Lines Of Business: An Illusion Or A Real Phenomenon? Some Methodological Considerations," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 225-263, May.
    9. Avanzi, Benjamin & Wong, Bernard & Yang, Xinda, 2016. "A micro-level claim count model with overdispersion and reporting delays," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-14.
    10. Norberg, Ragnar, 1999. "Prediction of Outstanding Liabilities II. Model Variations and Extensions," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 5-25, May.
    11. Avanzi, Benjamin & Tao, Jamie & Wong, Bernard & Yang, Xinda, 2016. "Capturing non-exchangeable dependence in multivariate loss processes with nested Archimedean Lévy copulas," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 87-117, March.
    12. Pigeon, Mathieu & Antonio, Katrien & Denuit, Michel, 2014. "Individual loss reserving using paid–incurred data," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2014024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    13. Matsui, Muneya, 2014. "Prediction in a non-homogeneous Poisson cluster model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 10-17.
    14. Badescu, Andrei L. & Chen, Tianle & Lin, X. Sheldon & Tang, Dameng, 2019. "A Marked Cox Model For The Number Of Ibnr Claims: Estimation And Application," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 709-739, September.
    15. Centanni, Silvia & Minozzo, Marco, 2006. "A Monte Carlo Approach to Filtering for a Class of Marked Doubly Stochastic Poisson Processes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1582-1597, December.
    16. Zhao, Xiao Bing & Zhou, Xian & Wang, Jing Long, 2009. "Semiparametric model for prediction of individual claim loss reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-8, August.
    17. Alexander J. McNeil & Rüdiger Frey & Paul Embrechts, 2015. "Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools Revised edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10496.
    18. Zhao, XiaoBing & Zhou, Xian, 2010. "Applying copula models to individual claim loss reserving methods," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 290-299, April.
    19. Lindskog, Filip & McNeil, Alexander J., 2003. "Common Poisson Shock Models: Applications to Insurance and Credit Risk Modelling," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 209-238, November.
    20. Norberg, Ragnar, 1993. "Prediction of Outstanding Liabilities in Non-Life Insurance1," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 95-115, May.
    21. Arjas, Elja, 1989. "The Claims Reserving Problem in Non-Life Insurance: Some Structural Ideas," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 139-152, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Teng, Ye & Zhang, Zhimin, 2023. "Finite-time expected present value of operating costs until ruin in a Cox risk model with periodic observation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 452(C).
    2. Daniel J. Geiger & Akim Adekpedjou, 2022. "Analysis of IBNR Liabilities with Interevent Times Depending on Claim Counts," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 815-829, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benjamin Avanzi & Gregory Clive Taylor & Bernard Wong & Xinda Yang, 2020. "On the modelling of multivariate counts with Cox processes and dependent shot noise intensities," Papers 2004.11169, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    2. Avanzi, Benjamin & Wong, Bernard & Yang, Xinda, 2016. "A micro-level claim count model with overdispersion and reporting delays," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-14.
    3. Maciak, Matúš & Okhrin, Ostap & Pešta, Michal, 2021. "Infinitely stochastic micro reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 30-58.
    4. Mat'uv{s} Maciak & Ostap Okhrin & Michal Pev{s}ta, 2019. "Infinitely Stochastic Micro Forecasting," Papers 1908.10636, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    5. Francis Duval & Mathieu Pigeon, 2019. "Individual Loss Reserving Using a Gradient Boosting-Based Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-18, July.
    6. Fersini, Paola & Melisi, Giuseppe, 2016. "Stochastic model to evaluate the fair value of motor third-party liability under the direct reimbursement scheme and quantification of the capital requirement in a Solvency II perspective," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 27-44.
    7. Stephan M. Bischofberger, 2020. "In-Sample Hazard Forecasting Based on Survival Models with Operational Time," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
    8. Arthur Charpentier & Mathieu Pigeon, 2016. "Macro vs. Micro Methods in Non-Life Claims Reserving (an Econometric Perspective)," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-18, May.
    9. Crevecoeur, Jonas & Antonio, Katrien & Verbelen, Roel, 2019. "Modeling the number of hidden events subject to observation delay," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(3), pages 930-944.
    10. Marie Michaelides & Mathieu Pigeon & H'el`ene Cossette, 2022. "Individual Claims Reserving using Activation Patterns," Papers 2208.08430, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    11. Richard J. Verrall & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2016. "Understanding Reporting Delay in General Insurance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-36, July.
    12. Crevecoeur, Jonas & Robben, Jens & Antonio, Katrien, 2022. "A hierarchical reserving model for reported non-life insurance claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 158-184.
    13. Mat'uv{s} Maciak & Ostap Okhrin & Michal Pev{s}ta, 2018. "Dynamic and granular loss reserving with copulae," Papers 1801.01792, arXiv.org.
    14. Łukasz Delong & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2020. "Neural Networks for the Joint Development of Individual Payments and Claim Incurred," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-34, April.
    15. Denuit, Michel & Trufin, Julien, 2016. "Collective Loss Reserving with Two Types of Claims in Motor Third Party Liability Insurance," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2016029, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    16. Ihsan Chaoubi & Camille Besse & H'el`ene Cossette & Marie-Pier C^ot'e, 2022. "Micro-level Reserving for General Insurance Claims using a Long Short-Term Memory Network," Papers 2201.13267, arXiv.org.
    17. Huang, Jinlong & Wu, Xianyi & Zhou, Xian, 2016. "Asymptotic behaviors of stochastic reserving: Aggregate versus individual models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 657-666.
    18. Yanez, Juan Sebastian & Pigeon, Mathieu, 2021. "Micro-level parametric duration-frequency-severity modeling for outstanding claim payments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 106-119.
    19. Lopez, Olivier, 2019. "A censored copula model for micro-level claim reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-14.
    20. Badescu, Andrei L. & Lin, X. Sheldon & Tang, Dameng, 2016. "A marked Cox model for the number of IBNR claims: Theory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 29-37.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dependency modelling; Cox process; Shot noise; Insurance claims counts; Micro-level model; Markov chain Monte Carlo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:99:y:2021:i:c:p:9-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.