IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uwarer/270766.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quantile estimates of counterfactual distribution shifts and the impact of minimum wage increases on the wage distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Stewart, Mark B.

Abstract

This paper presents a method for estimating the effects of a policy change on an outcome distribution that uses a comparator quantile rather than a control group and provides methods for estimating the variances of the estimators. The empirical analysis presents estimates of “spillover” effects of increases in the UK minimum wage, i.e. effects on the wages of those already above the minimum, under different counterfactual distribution shift assumptions. Evidence is presented against a simple scaled counterfactual. On the basis of the proposed counterfactual estimated spillover effects are small and in most cases do not reach above the 5th. percentile.

Suggested Citation

  • Stewart, Mark B., 2011. "Quantile estimates of counterfactual distribution shifts and the impact of minimum wage increases on the wage distribution," Economic Research Papers 270766, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uwarer:270766
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.270766
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/270766/files/twerp_958.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/270766/files/twerp_958.pdf?subformat=pdfa
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.270766?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meyer, Bruce D & Viscusi, W Kip & Durbin, David L, 1995. "Workers' Compensation and Injury Duration: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 322-340, June.
    2. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    3. Clive Dobbs, 2009. "Patterns of pay: results of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 1997 to 2008," Economic & Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan;Office for National Statistics, vol. 3(3), pages 24-32, March.
    4. Edward M. Gramlich, 1976. "Impact of Minimum Wages on Other Wages, Employment, and Family Incomes," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(2), pages 409-462.
    5. Fortin, Nicole & Lemieux, Thomas & Firpo, Sergio, 2011. "Decomposition Methods in Economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 1, pages 1-102, Elsevier.
    6. David H. Autor & Alan Manning & Christopher L. Smith, 2016. "The Contribution of the Minimum Wage to US Wage Inequality over Three Decades: A Reassessment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 58-99, January.
    7. Christopher J. Flinn, 2006. "Minimum Wage Effects on Labor Market Outcomes under Search, Matching, and Endogenous Contact Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 1013-1062, July.
    8. Helen Robinson & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2007. "Impact Of The Minimum Wage On The Incidence Of Second Job Holding In Britain," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(4), pages 553-574, September.
    9. Mark B. Stewart, 2004. "The Impact of the Introduction of the U.K. Minimum Wage on the Employment Probabilities of Low-Wage Workers," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(1), pages 67-97, March.
    10. Mark B. Stewart & Joanna K. Swaffield, 2008. "The Other Margin: Do Minimum Wages Cause Working Hours Adjustments for Low‐Wage Workers?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 148-167, February.
    11. Richard Dickens & Alan Manning, 2004. "Spikes and spill-overs: The impact of the national minimum wage on the wage distribution in a low-wage sector," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(494), pages 95-101, March.
    12. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    13. Hall, Peter & Martin, Michael A., 1991. "On the error incurred using the bootstrap variance estimate when constructing confidence intervals for quantiles," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 70-81, July.
    14. David S. Lee, 1999. "Wage Inequality in the United States During the 1980s: Rising Dispersion or Falling Minimum Wage?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(3), pages 977-1023.
    15. Rothe, Christoph, 2010. "Nonparametric estimation of distributional policy effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 155(1), pages 56-70, March.
    16. Mark Pont, 2007. "Coverage and non‐response errors in the UK New Earnings Survey," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(3), pages 713-733, July.
    17. Armin Falk & Ernst Fehr & Christian Zehnder, 2006. "Fairness Perceptions and Reservation Wages—the Behavioral Effects of Minimum Wage Laws," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(4), pages 1347-1381.
    18. Helen Robinson & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2004. "Did The Minimum Wage Affect The Incidence Of Second Job Holding In Britain?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 24, Royal Economic Society.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark B. Stewart, 2012. "Wage inequality, minimum wage effects, and spillovers," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 616-634, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mark B. Stewart, 2012. "Wage inequality, minimum wage effects, and spillovers," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 616-634, October.
    2. Marco Caliendo & Carsten Schröder & Linda Wittbrodt, 2019. "The Causal Effects of the Minimum Wage Introduction in Germany – An Overview," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(3), pages 257-292, August.
    3. Romain Aeberhardt & Pauline Givord & Claire Marbot, 2016. "Spillover effect of the Minimum Wage in France: An UnconditionalQuantile Regression," Working Papers 2016-05, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    4. Selin Pelek, 2018. "The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Wage Distribution: The Evidence from Turkey," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 17-59, January.
    5. Brian Bell & Stephen Machin, 2018. "Minimum Wages and Firm Value," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 159-195.
    6. Pérez Pérez, Jorge, 2020. "The minimum wage in formal and informal sectors: Evidence from an inflation shock," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Oliveira, Carlos, 2021. "How is the Minimum Wage Shaping the Wage Distribution: Minimum Wage, Spillovers, and Wage Inequality in Portugal," MPRA Paper 112534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Niklas Engbom & Christian Moser, 2022. "Earnings Inequality and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(12), pages 3803-3847, December.
    9. Brochu, Pierre & Green, David A. & Lemieux, Thomas & Townsend, James, 2023. "The Minimum Wage, Turnover, and the Shape of the Wage Distribution," IZA Discussion Papers 16514, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Simona Ferraro & Jaanika Meriküll & Karsten Staehr, 2018. "Minimum wages and the wage distribution in Estonia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(49), pages 5253-5268, October.
    11. Carlos Oliveira, 2022. "How is the Minimum Wage Shaping the Wage Disitribution: Bite, Spillovers, and Wage Inequality," GEE Papers 0160, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised May 2022.
    12. Rafael Lopes de Melo, 2012. "Firm Heterogeneity, Sorting and the Minimum Wage," 2012 Meeting Papers 611, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Duanmu, Jing-Lin & Norbäck, Pehr-Johan & Lu, Jane Wenzhen & Clegg, Jeremy, 2022. "Contraction under minimum wages? Operational and financial advantages of multinational subsidiaries in China," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(2).
    14. Laws, A., 2018. "Do minimum wages increase search effort?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1857, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Fernández‐Val & Blaise Melly, 2013. "Inference on Counterfactual Distributions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(6), pages 2205-2268, November.
    16. Eva Militaru & Madalina Ecaterina Popescu & Amalia Cristescu & Maria Denisa Vasilescu, 2019. "Assessing Minimum Wage Policy Implications upon Income Inequalities. The Case of Romania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, May.
    17. Giulia Giupponi & Stephen Machin, 2018. "Changing the structure of minimum wages: firm adjustment and wage spillovers," CEP Discussion Papers dp1533, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    18. Bai, Xue & Chatterjee, Arpita & Krishna, Kala & Ma, Hong, 2021. "Trade and minimum wages in general equilibrium: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2022. "When the minimum wage really bites hard: The negative spillover effect on high-skilled workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    20. Pestel, Nico & Bonin, Holger & Isphording, Ingo E. & Gregory, Terry & Caliendo, Marco, 2020. "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit," IZA Research Reports 95, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Economics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uwarer:270766. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.