IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ucbecw/198673.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Keep It Sophisticatedly Simple

Author

Listed:
  • Zellner, Arnold

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Zellner, Arnold, 1999. "Keep It Sophisticatedly Simple," CUDARE Working Papers 198673, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucbecw:198673
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.198673
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/198673/files/agecon-cal-865.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.198673?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McNees, Stephen K, 1986. "Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 5-15, January.
    2. Christ, Carl F, 1975. "Judging the Performance of Econometric Models of the U.S. Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 54-74, February.
    3. Zellner, Arnold & Min, Chung-ki, 1998. "Forecasting turning points in countries' output growth rates: A response to Milton Friedman," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 203-206, November.
    4. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Carl Christ, 1951. "A Test of an Econometric Model for the United States, 1921-1947," NBER Chapters, in: Conference on Business Cycles, pages 35-130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    7. Arnold Zellner & Hang Ryu, 1998. "Alternative functional forms for production, cost and returns to scale functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 101-127.
    8. Arnold Zellner, 1997. "Bayesian Analysis in Econometrics and Statistics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 825.
    9. Keuzenkamp, H.A. & McAleer, M., 1994. "Simplicity, scientific inference and econometric modelling," Discussion Paper 1994-56, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Zellner, Arnold & Hong, Chansik & Min, Chung-ki, 1991. "Forecasting turning points in international output growth rates using Bayesian exponentially weighted autoregression, time-varying parameter, and pooling techniques," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 275-304.
    11. Zellner, Arnold & Moulton, Brent R., 1985. "Bayesian regression diagnostics with applications to international consumption and income data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 187-211.
    12. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
    13. Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research, 1951. "Conference on Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number univ51-1, July.
    14. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, July.
    15. Keuzenkamp, Hugo A. & McAleer, Michael, 1997. "The complexity of simplicity," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-561.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gamel Abdul-Nasser Salifu & Kwabena Asomanin Anaman, 2019. "A Political Economy Analysis of Income Diversification Activities of Rural Households in the Northern Region of Ghana," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(5), pages 10-34, September.
    2. Powell Mponela & Julius Manda & Michael Kinyua & Job Kihara, 2023. "Participatory Action Research, Social Networks, and Gender Influence Soil Fertility Management in Tanzania," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 141-163, February.
    3. Kwabena Asomanin Anaman & Irene Susana Egyir, 2019. "Economic Shocks and the Growth of the Construction Industry in Ghana Over the 50-Year Period From 1968 to 2017," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Karine Bouthevillain, 1993. "La prévision macro-économique : précision relative et consensus," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 97-126.
    3. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Victor Zarnowitz, 1986. "The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 2099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sager, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2014. "Generating currency trading rules from the term structure of forward foreign exchange premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 230-250.
    8. Hafer, R. W. & Sheehan, Richard G., 1989. "The sensitivity of VAR forecasts to alternative lag structures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 399-408.
    9. Christopher A. Sims, 1993. "A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 179-212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Angeliki ANAGNOSTOU & Stephanos PAPADAMOU, 2014. "The Impact Of Monetary Shocks On Regional Output: Evidence From Four South Eurozone Countries," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 39, pages 105-130.
    11. Raul Ibarra & Luis M. Gomez-Zamudio, 2017. "Are Daily Financial Data Useful for Forecasting GDP? Evidence from Mexico," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 173-203, April.
    12. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412, April.
    13. Duncan, Roberto & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2019. "New perspectives on forecasting inflation in emerging market economies: An empirical assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1008-1031.
    14. Gary L. Shoesmith, 1990. "The Forecasting Accuracy of Regional Bayesian VAR Models with Alternative National Variable Choices," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 13(3), pages 257-269, December.
    15. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June.
    16. Karlsson, Sune, 2013. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 791-897, Elsevier.
    17. William W. Chow, 2004. "An outlier robust hierarchical Bayes model for forecasting: the case of Hong Kong," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 99-114.
    18. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412.
    19. Matthew N. Luzzetti & Lee E. Ohanian, 2012. "The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money after 75 Years: The Importance of Being in the Right Place at the Right Time," Chapters, in: Thomas Cate (ed.), Keynes’s General Theory, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Roy H. Webb, 1999. "Two approaches to macroeconomic forecasting," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 23-40.
    21. Kim, Jae H., 1999. "Asymptotic and bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 393-403, October.
    22. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
    23. Ni, Shawn & Sun, Dongchu, 2003. "Noninformative priors and frequentist risks of bayesian estimators of vector-autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 159-197, July.
    24. Villani, Mattias, 2001. "Bayesian prediction with cointegrated vector autoregressions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 585-605.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public Economics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ucbecw:198673. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dabrkus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.