Extreme Weather Events, Farm Income, and Poverty in Niger

Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world. The most recent UNDP1 report classifies Niger as the last country in terms of human development index. Although more than 80 percent of the economically active population is involved in farming, the agriculture sector generates only around 40 percent of the gross domestic product. Since farm production is heavily dependent on rainfall, frequent extreme weather events may have a severe impact on agricultural output and household income. In this light, this study examines the potential impact of extreme weather events such as prolonged drought and flooding and other selected climate variables on yield of the three major crops in this country: millet, sorghum, and dry bean. Using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in 2014, the estimation results show that drought has a significant negative effect on sorghum and dry bean yield. However, flood have no impact on any of the three crop yields. An increase in temperature affects negatively all three crops yield threatening therefore farm income, and household food security. These results are likely to be further amplified by rising global warming and climate change.