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Cow-Calf Industry Expansion on the Horizon? Market Signals vs. Outside Factors

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  • Riley, John Michael
  • Williams, Brian R.
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    Abstract

    The cow-calf industry has been in a contraction state since 2008 despite improved calf prices in 2010 and 2011 and what appeared to be a market signal toward expansion. Instead, 2012 and 2013 appear to be headed to two more years of contraction. We examine factors impacting a cow-calf producer’s decision on heifer retention to gain a better understanding of a producer’s decision. Results help to explain the continued decrease in the U.S. herd size despite price signals that appear to favor expansion.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/143044
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its series 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida with number 143044.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:saea13:143044

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    Related research

    Keywords: Heifer retention; beef production; Cattle herd expansion; Livestock Production/Industries;

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    1. Zhao, Huan & Hennessy, David A., 2009. "Rationalizing Time Series Differences Between Cow-Calf And Feeder Returns," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49486, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Jarvis, Lovell S, 1974. "Cattle as Capital Goods and Ranchers as Portfolio Managers: An Application to the Argentine Cattle Sector," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 489-520, May/June.
    3. repec:ags:jrapmc:122309 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. David Aadland & DeeVon Bailey, 2001. "Short-Run Supply Responses in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 826-839.
    5. repec:ags:jrapmc:122317 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Van Tassell, Larry W. & McNeley, Scott M. & MacNeil, Michael D. & Short, Robert E. & Grings, Elaine E., 1997. "Retained Ownership of Beef Cattle When Considering Production and Price Risk," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\Sparks, Nevada 35876, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Zimmerman, Lance C. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Olson, K.C. & Stokka, Gerald L. & Seeger, Jon T. & Grotelueschen, Dale M., 2012. "The Effect of Value-Added Management on Calf Prices at Superior Livestock Auction Video Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(1), April.
    8. Randal R. Rucker & Oscar R. Burt & Jeffrey T. LaFrance, 1984. "An Econometric Model of Cattle Inventories," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series archive-25, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    9. Roeber, D.L. & Umberger, Wendy J., 2002. "The Value Of Preconditioning Programs In Beef Production Systems," 2002 Annual Meeting, July 28-31, 2002, Long Beach, California 36622, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    10. Yair Mundlak & He Huang, 1996. "International Comparisons of Cattle Cycles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 855-868.
    11. Williams, Galen S. & Raper, Kellie Curry & DeVuyst, Eric A. & Peel, Derrell S. & McKinney, Doug, 2012. "Determinants of Price Differentials in Oklahoma Value-Added Feeder Cattle Auctions," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(1), April.
    12. Avent, R. Keith & Ward, Clement E. & Lalman, David L., 2004. "Market Valuation of Preconditioning Feeder Calves," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(01), April.
    13. John D. Schmitz, 1997. "Dynamics of Beef Cow Herd Size: An Inventory Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 532-542.
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