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Household Welfare Impact of Trade Liberalization in Nigeria: A Computable General Equilibrium Model

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  • Okodua, Henry

Abstract

Trade liberalization policy across countries of the world gathered momentum in the 1990s and has not abated ever since. The major impetus for these policy reforms has been the strong desire of countries to harness the benefits embedded in international trade (this is as suggested by the recent experiences of economic growth in many economies particularly, the emerging market economies), and hopefully increase the standard of living of citizens. While the empirical link between trade liberalization and its economic growth outcomes in Nigeria has received considerable attention in the literature, the household welfare impact or income distributional effect of this policy remains under-researched. This study examines the various household welfare scenarios that will result from the imposition of shocks on import tariffs in the Nigerian economy. To achieve this, the paper utilizes the computable general equilibrium model based on a 2006 social accounting matrix for Nigeria to conduct a macro-micro simulations of the economy. The computable general equilibrium model is implemented in a static module making it a good instrument for controlled policy simulations and experiments. The paper further tracks the patterns of possible welfare losses or gains for the rural and urban households under the various simulations. Some of the major findings suggest that a liberalization policy will particularly hurt the agricultural sector as the policy will induce a shift in consumption preferences within this sector from domestic production to imports. Overall, a complete or partial removal of import tariffs will also hurt the rural households more than the urban households in Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Okodua, Henry, 2014. "Household Welfare Impact of Trade Liberalization in Nigeria: A Computable General Equilibrium Model," Conference papers 332440, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332440
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Margaret Chitiga & Ramos Mabugu, 2006. "Does Trade Liberalisation Lead to Poverty Alleviation? a CGE Microsimulation Approach for Zimbabwe," Working Papers MPIA 2006-18, PEP-MPIA.
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    3. David Dollar & Aart Kraay, 2004. "Trade, Growth, and Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 22-49, February.
    4. (Stanley) Cho, Sang-Wook & P. Díaz, Julián, 2008. "Trade Liberalization in Latin America and Eastern Europe: the Cases of Ecuador and Slovenia," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 1002-1045.
    5. Winters, L Alan, 2000. "Trade, Trade Policy and Poverty: What Are The Links?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2382, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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