Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Technical Change, Market Incentives And Rural Incomes: A Cge Analysis Of Uganda'S Agriculture

Contents:

Author Info

  • Dorosh, Paul A.
  • El-Said, Moataz
  • Lofgren, Hans

Abstract

In Uganda, as in much of sub-Saharan Africa, poverty is concentrated in rural areas. Because agriculture accounts for a large share of incomes for these households, policies and external shocks that affect agriculture, including shifts in world prices, changes in agricultural productivity, and reductions in marketing costs, may have significant effects on rural poverty. In this paper, we use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Ugandan economy, explicitly designed to capture regional variations in agricultural production and household incomes, to examine the implications of these policy changes and shocks. Simulation results suggest that a doubling of area planted to coffee (the government's target) would increase rural consumption by less than 2.0 percent, because of an estimated 10 percent decline in the world price of robusta coffee and an 11.3 percent real exchange rate appreciation of the Ugandan shilling. Smaller productivity increases in food crops may have greater potential to raise rural incomes, provided that markets perform well and producer incentives are maintained. A five percent increase in agricultural productivity raises consumption by 1.3 to 2.1 percent among rural households and lowers food prices by 3.4 to 3.8 percent relative to the CPI, thus benefiting households with high food consumption shares. Reducing agricultural marketing margins by 30 percent leads to increases of 2.3 to 4.1 percent in consumption of farm households, with the largest gains in regions where consumption out of own production is lower.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25846
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa with number 25846.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae03:25846

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.iaae-agecon.org/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: International Development;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Pender, John L. & Jagger, Pamela & Nkonya, Ephraim M. & Sserunkuuma, Dick, 2002. "Development Pathways And Land Management In Uganda: Causes And Implications," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19814, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Paul Mosley, 2002. "The African green revolution as a pro-poor policy instrument," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(6), pages 695-724.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Bussolo, Maurizio & Godart, Olivier & Lay, Jann & Thiele, Rainer, 2006. "The Impact of Coffee Price Changes on Rural Households in Uganda," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25345, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Gunawardena, Aruni, 2012. "Effects of Increasing Agricultural Productivity: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for Sri Lanka," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia 124313, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  3. Bussolo, Maurizio & Godart, Olivier & Lay, Jann & Thiele, Rainer, 2006. "The impact of commodity price changes on rural households : the case of coffee in Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4088, The World Bank.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae03:25846

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.