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Was Erklärt Den Außenhandel Der Deutschen Agrar- Und Ernährungswirtschaft? Eine Ökonometrische Analyse Auf Basis Des Gravitationsmodells

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  • Dreyer, Heiko
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    Abstract

    In diesem Beitrag wird der deutsche Außenhandel mit Produkten der Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft in einem Gravitationsmodell analysiert. Ziel ist es, die relevanten Bestimmungsgründe für den Außenhandel mit diesen Produkten zu identifizieren und zu quantifizieren. Ein Schwerpunkt liegt in der Bedeutung der europäischen Marktintegration für den deutschen Außenhandel. Dazu erfolgt die Modellspezifikation unter Berücksichtigung des Wechselkursrisikos. Das für einen Länderquerschnitt geschätzte Gravitationsmodell kann die Variation im Außenhandel erfolgreich erklären. Verschiedene Ergebnisse lassen einen deutlichen, positiven Effekt der Marktintegration erkennen. Die Mitgliedschaft eines deutschen Handelspartners in der Europäischen Union ist für den Handel bedeutender als die Einführung des Euros in diesem Land. Mit EU-Staaten, die den Euro nicht eingeführt haben, werden im Vergleich zu allen anderen Staaten 2,3-mal so viele Waren ausgetauscht. Hat ein EU-Staat den Euro eingeführt, so erhöht sich der Außenhandel mit Deutschland um weitere 70 Prozent. Es gibt jedoch keine Anzeichen dafür, dass das Wechselkursrisiko einen signifikanten negativen Einfluss auf den Außenhandel hat. Wird ein signifikanter Einfluss gefunden, ist dieser klein und positiv.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA) in its series 52nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 26-28, 2012 with number 133030.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:gewi12:133030

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    Keywords: Agraraußenhandel; Deutschland; europäische Marktintegration; Eurozone; Wechselkursrisiko; Makroökonomische Effekte; Gravitationsmodell; agricultural trade; Germany; European market integration; Euro area; exchange rate risk; macroeconomic effects; gravity equation; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade;

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