IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eaae14/182665.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Analysing impacts of changing price variability with estimated farm risk-programming models

Author

Listed:
  • Jansson, Torbjörn
  • Heckelei, Thomas
  • Gocht, Alexander
  • Basnet, Shyam Kumar
  • Zhang, Yinan
  • Neuenfeldt, Sebastian

Abstract

We formulate and estimate a farm level simulation model of agricultural crop production, and apply it to a scenario with increasing yield variability. The objective function is of the mean-variance utility type with a positive mathematical programming (PMP) cost function, and it is estimated using the optimality conditions and a large panel data set obtained from the FADN. Special attention is given to the problem of separating the effect of the covariance matrix from that of the quadratic PMP terms. The model is applied in a partial analysis of impacts of climate change in Germany by exogenously changing yield patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Jansson, Torbjörn & Heckelei, Thomas & Gocht, Alexander & Basnet, Shyam Kumar & Zhang, Yinan & Neuenfeldt, Sebastian, 2014. "Analysing impacts of changing price variability with estimated farm risk-programming models," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182665, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae14:182665
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.182665
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/182665/files/Jansson-Analysing_impacts_of_changing_price_variability_with_estimated_farm_risk-programming_models-594_a.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.182665?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stanley R. Thompson & Roland Herrmann & Wolfgang Gohout, 2000. "Agricultural Market Liberalization and Instability of Domestic Agricultural Markets: The Case of the CAP," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 718-726.
    2. Christopher Gilbert & Wyn Morgan, 2010. "Has food price volatility risen?," Department of Economics Working Papers 1002, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    3. Thomas Heckelei & Hendrik Wolff, 2003. "Estimation of constrained optimisation models for agricultural supply analysis based on generalised maximum entropy," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 30(1), pages 27-50, March.
    4. Heckelei, Thomas & Britz, Wolfgang & Zhang, Yinan, 2012. "Positive Mathematical Programming Approaches – Recent Developments in Literature and Applied Modelling," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Richard E. Howitt, 1995. "Positive Mathematical Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(2), pages 329-342.
    6. Gocht, Alexander & Britz, Wolfgang, 2011. "EU-wide farm type supply models in CAPRI--How to consistently disaggregate sector models into farm type models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 146-167, January.
    7. Raskin, Rob & Cochran, Mark J., 1986. "Interpretations And Transformations Of Scale For The Pratt-Arrow Absolute Risk Aversion Coefficient: Implications For Generalized Stochastic Dominance," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-7, December.
    8. Severini, Simone & Cortignani, Raffaele, 2011. "Modeling farmer participation to a revenue insurance scheme by means of Positive Mathematical Programming," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 116001, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Petsakos, Athanasios & Rozakis, Stelios, 2011. "Integrating risk and uncertainty in PMP models," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114762, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Britz, Wolfgang & Linda, Arata, "undated". "How Important Are Crop Shares In Managing Risk For Specialized Arable Farms? A Panel Estimation Of A Programming Model For Three European Regions," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244801, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    2. Carpentier, Alain & Gohin, Alexandre & Sckokai, Paolo & Thomas, Alban, 2015. "Economic modelling of agricultural production: past advances and new challenges," Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, Editions NecPlus, vol. 96(01), pages 131-165, March.
    3. Kamel Elouhichi & Maria Espinosa Goded & Pavel Ciaian & Angel Perni Llorente & Bouda Vosough Ahmadi & Liesbeth Colen & Sergio Gomez Y Paloma, 2018. "The EU-Wide Individual Farm Model for Common Agricultural Policy Analysis (IFM-CAP v.1): Economic Impacts of CAP Greening," JRC Research Reports JRC108693, Joint Research Centre.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Xuan & van Kooten, Gerrit Cornelis & Duan, Jun, 2020. "Calibration of agricultural risk programming models using positive mathematical programming," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), July.
    2. Heckelei, Thomas & Britz, Wolfgang & Zhang, Yinan, 2012. "Positive Mathematical Programming Approaches – Recent Developments in Literature and Applied Modelling," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-16, April.
    3. Britz, Wolfgang & Linda, Arata, "undated". "How Important Are Crop Shares In Managing Risk For Specialized Arable Farms? A Panel Estimation Of A Programming Model For Three European Regions," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244801, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    4. Viaggi, Davide & Raggi, Meri & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2011. "Farm-household investment behaviour and the CAP decoupling: Methodological issues in assessing policy impacts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 127-145, January.
    5. Mack, Gabriele & Ferjani, Ali & Mohring, Anke & Zimmerman, Albert & Mann, Stefan, 2015. "How did farmers act? An ex-post validation of normative and positive mathematical programming for an agent-based sector model," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212201, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Arfini, Filippo & Donati, Michele & Marongiu, Sonia & Cesaro, Luca, 2012. "Farm production costs estimation trough PMP Models: an application in three Italian Regions," 2012 First Congress, June 4-5, 2012, Trento, Italy 124117, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    7. Kamel Elouhichi & Maria Espinosa Goded & Pavel Ciaian & Angel Perni Llorente & Bouda Vosough Ahmadi & Liesbeth Colen & Sergio Gomez Y Paloma, 2018. "The EU-Wide Individual Farm Model for Common Agricultural Policy Analysis (IFM-CAP v.1): Economic Impacts of CAP Greening," JRC Research Reports JRC108693, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Christina Moulogianni, 2022. "Comparison of Selected Mathematical Programming Models Used for Sustainable Land and Farm Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, August.
    9. Louhichi, Kamel & Ciaian, Pavel & Espinosa, Maria & Colen, Liesbeth & Perni, Angel & Paloma, Sergio, 2015. "The Impact of Crop Diversification Measure: EU-wide Evidence Based on IFM-CAP Model," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211542, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. CARPENTIER, Alain & GOHIN, Alexandre & SCKOKAI, Paolo & THOMAS, Alban, 2015. "Economic modelling of agricultural production: past advances and new challenges," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement (RAEStud), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 96(1), March.
    11. Louhichi, Kamel & Ciaian, Pavel & Espinosa, Maria & Colen, Liesbeth & Perni, Angel & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2015. "EU-wide individual Farm Model for CAP Analysis (IFM-CAP): Application to Crop Diversification Policy," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212155, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Koutchade, Philippe & Carpentier, Alain & Féménia, Fabienne, 2015. "Empirical modeling of production decisions of heterogeneous farmers with random parameter models," Working Papers 210097, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    13. Kamel Elouhichi & Pascal Tillie & Aymeric Ricome & Sergio Gomez-Y-Paloma, 2020. "Modelling Farm-household Livelihoods in Developing Economies: Insights from three country case studies using LSMS-ISA data," JRC Research Reports JRC118822, Joint Research Centre.
    14. Petsakos, Athanasios & Rozakis, Stelios, 2015. "Calibration of agricultural risk programming models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(2), pages 536-545.
    15. Doole, Graeme J. & Marsh, Dan K., 2014. "Methodological limitations in the evaluation of policies to reduce nitrate leaching from New Zealand agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(1), January.
    16. Arata, Linda & Donati, Michele & Sckokai, Paolo & Arfini, Filippo, 2014. "Incorporating risk in a positive mathematical programming framework: a new methodological approach," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182659, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Carpentier, Alain & Gohin, Alexandre, 2015. "On the economic theory of crop rotations: value of the crop rotation effects and implications on acreage choice modeling," Working Papers 205299, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    18. Koutchadé, Philippe & Carpentier, Alain & Féménia, Fabienne, 2015. "Empirical modelling of production decisions of heterogeneous farmers with mixed models," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205098, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Koutchade, Philippe & Carpentier, Alain & Femenia, Fabienne, 2015. "Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in micro-econometric agricultural production models: a random parameter approach," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212015, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Xuan Liu & Jun Duan & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2018. "The impact of changes in the AgriStability program on crop activities: A farm modeling approach," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 650-667, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaae14:182665. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.