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Potato Prices as Affected by Supply and Demand Factors: An Irish Case Study

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  • Thorne, Fiona S.

Abstract

The supply and demand factors affecting the farm level price for Irish potatoes has undergone considerable change in the last two decades. On the demand side, per capita consumption has decreased by almost a half, and the use of potatoes has shifted from consumption of table stock potatoes towards greater levels of processed potato products. On the supply side, domestic production levels of potatoes decreased by just over 30 percent, whilst grower numbers decreased by greater than 75 percent over the same period. Against this background of significant changes in domestic consumption levels and patterns and domestic production of potatoes this paper examines the effect of these factors on potato price levels and variability. Farm level price and volatility is a concern for a number of reasons as it adds challenges for business planning, debt repayment, and, in some cases, solvency. Farm level price data and supply and use balance sheet data from Eurosta are used in an ARCH modelling framework to quantify and examine the factors affecting potato price mean levels and volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorne, Fiona S., 2012. "Potato Prices as Affected by Supply and Demand Factors: An Irish Case Study," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122473, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa123:122473
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.122473
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    1. Moledina, Amyaz A. & Roe, Terry L. & Shane, Mathew, 2004. "Measuring Commodity Price Volatility And The Welfare Consequences Of Eliminating Volatility," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19963, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. O'Connor, Declan & Keane, Michael & Barnes, Edel, 2009. "Measuring Volatility in Dairy Commodity Prices," 113th Seminar, September 3-6, 2009, Chania, Crete, Greece 58106, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    1. Fuller, Kate Binzen & Brester, Gary & Boland, Michael, "undated". "Fries, Bakers, Tots, and Seed: Genetic Engineering and Varietal Selection," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 261227, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Kate Binzen Fuller & Gary W Brester & Michael A Boland, 2018. "Genetic Engineering and Risk in Varietal Selection of Potatoes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(2), pages 600-608.
    3. Koblianska, Inna & Seheda, Serhii & Khaietska, Olha & Kalachevska, Larysa & Klochko, Tetiana, 2022. "Determinants of potato producer prices in the peasant-driven market: the Ukrainian case," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 8(3), June.
    4. Anwar, Dr. Mumtaz & Shabbir, Dr. Ghulam & Shahid, M. Hassam & Samreen, Wajiha, 2015. "Determinants of Potato Prices and its Forecasting: A Case Study of Punjab, Pakistan," MPRA Paper 66678, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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