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The Effects of Exchange-Rate Exposures on Equity Asset Markets

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  • Jumah, Adusei

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies)

  • Kunst, Robert M.

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between stock returns and exchange rate changes in international markets and examines how well exchange rate volatility explains movements in stock market returns. The model-based predictions are evaluated on several cost functions. Results from such analysis can be used to appraise the need for hedging. Of the three examined stock indexes, the FTSE was found to be the only robust index, while the S&P 500 and the Nikkei indexes reacted to the dollar/yen exchange rates. The dollaer/yen rate also improved risk prediction for the Standard&Poor futures, while the gains in forecasting from using bivariate models remained small otherwise.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-94.pdf
File Function: First version, 2001
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 94.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:94

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Related research

Keywords: Exchange rate futures; Index futures; Conditional heteroskedasticity; Forecasting;

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References

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  1. Khoo, Andrew, 1994. "Estimation of foreign exchange exposure: an application to mining companies in Australia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 342-363, June.
  2. Holt, Matthew & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1990. "Price Risk in Supply Equations: An Application of Garch Time-Series Models to the U.S. Broiler Market," Staff General Research Papers 276, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Marc Sáez & Robert M. Kunst, 1995. "ARCH patterns in cointegrated systems," Economics Working Papers 110, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Clifford W. Smith & Charles W. Smithson & D. Sykes Wilford, 1989. "Managing Financial Risk," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 1(4), pages 27-48.
  5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  6. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. " Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-28, June.
  7. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  9. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  10. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 318-334, September.
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