Climate Change and Food Security to 2050: A Global Economy-wide Perspective
AbstractRecent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses the GTAP global economy-wide model to capture at the same time the expected positive effects on temperate zone crop productivity, which will more or less offset the upward pressure on farm product prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity on the productivity of unskilled workers in the tropics, but since they work in nonfarm as well as farm activities the net effect of that shock on agriculture’s competitiveness is an empirical matter. The results suggest there may be less cause for concern over food security than some earlier studies indicated, but the degrees of uncertainty involved in such modelling are sufficient to warrant a precautionary approach.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its series 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia with number 100531.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
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Climate change; crop and labour productivity growth; global computable general equilibrium model projections; Productivity Analysis; D58; F17; Q17; Q24; Q54;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
- Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2011-03-05 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2011-03-05 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2011-03-05 (Environmental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521744447 is not listed on IDEAS
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