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Climate Change and Food Security to 2030: A Global Economy-wide Perspective

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  • Ernesto Valenzuela

    ()
    (Centre for International Economic Studies, School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

  • Kym Anderson

    ()
    (Centre for International Economic Studies, School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

Abstract

Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households who comprise most of the worldÂ’s poor and whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses a global economy-wide model to assess the expected (in some cases positive) effects on temperate zone crop productivity and the upward pressure on farm product prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. The net effect of those combined shocks on the agricultural sectorÂ’s competitiveness in any developing country is an economy-wide empirical matter, since unskilled workers are employed in nonfarm as well as farm activities. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results provide a range of consequences for international agricultural prices and for national food consumption, net farm income and economic welfare.

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File URL: http://www.adelaide.edu.au/cies/publications/present/CIES_DP1102.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies in its series Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers with number 2011-02.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:adl:cieswp:2011-02

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Keywords: Climate change; crop and labour productivity growth; global economy-wide model projections;

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  1. Hertel, Thomas W. & Beckman, Jayson F., 2010. "Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage between Energy and Agricultural Markets," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 60857, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  2. Anderson, Kym & Kurzweil, Marianne & Martin, Will & Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2008. "Measuring distortions to agricultural incentives, revisited," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4612, The World Bank.
  3. Martin, Will & Anderson, Kym, 2011. "Export restrictions and price insulation during commodity price booms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5645, The World Bank.
  4. Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture," Working Papers 2010-27, CEPII research center.
  6. Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas & Lee, Huey-Lin & Rose, Steven & Sohngen, Brent, 2009. "The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 299-319, November.
  7. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2611, October.
  8. Anderson, Kym, 2008. "Distorted Agricultural Incentives and Economic Development: Asia’s Experience," CEPR Discussion Papers 6914, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521744447 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas & Taheripour, Farzad & Tyner, Wally, 2010. "Modeling Biofuels Policies in General Equilibrium: Insights, Pitfalls and Opportunities," GTAP Working Papers 3406, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  11. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
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