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Climate change and food security to 2030: a global economy-wide perspective

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  • Valenzuela, Ernesto
  • Anderson, Kym

Abstract

The effects of climate change on agriculture raise major food security concerns. We use a global economy-wide model to assess the effects on farm product prices of expected yield changes. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results entail consequences for international agricultural prices, national food consumption, self sufficiency, net farm income and economic welfare.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists in its journal Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales.

Volume (Year): 11 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:earnsa:117616

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Keywords: Climate change; crop and labor productivity growth; global economy-wide model projections; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty; D58; F17; Q17; Q24; Q54;

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  1. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture," Working Papers 2010-27, CEPII research center.
  2. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will, 2011. "Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms," CEPR Discussion Papers 8494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Anderson, Kym, 2008. "Distorted Agricultural Incentives and Economic Development: Asia’s Experience," CEPR Discussion Papers 6914, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Anderson, Kym & Kurzweil, Marianne & Martin, Will & Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2008. "Measuring distortions to agricultural incentives, revisited," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 675-704, October.
  6. Anderson, Kym & Martin, William J., 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48557, World Bank.
  7. Thomas W. Hertel & Jayson Beckman, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage Between Energy and Agricultural Markets," NBER Working Papers 16824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
  9. Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas & Lee, Huey-Lin & Rose, Steven & Sohngen, Brent, 2009. "The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 299-319, November.
  10. Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas & Taheripour, Farzad & Tyner, Wally, 2010. "Modeling Biofuels Policies in General Equilibrium: Insights, Pitfalls and Opportunities," GTAP Working Papers 3406, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  11. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521744447 is not listed on IDEAS
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