Information Rigidity and Correcting Inefficiency in USDA’s Commodity Forecasts
AbstractThis study investigates the rationality of monthly revisions in annual forecasts of supply, demand and price for U.S. corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat, published in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates over 1985/86-2010/11. The findings indicate that USDA's forecast revisions are not independent across months, and that forecasts are typically smoothed. Adjustment for smoothing in a subset of forecasts (1998/2000-2010/11) showed mixed results: significant improvements for soybean use forecasts, cotton exports, and a broad cross-section of forecasts published in October. However, accuracy deteriorated in some cases, particularly for late-season preliminary data revisions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington with number 124890.
Date of creation: 2012
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Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;
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- Isengildina-Massa, Olga & MacDonald, Stephen & Xie, Ran, 2012. "A Comprehensive Evaluation of USDA Cotton Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(1), April.
- Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004.
"Are Revisions To Usda Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?,"
2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri
19027, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Olga Isengildina & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good, 2006. "Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1091-1104.
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