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A gravity model approach to forecasting tuberculosis transmission in cattle

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Author Info
Xie, Fang
Horan, Richard D.
Wolf, Christopher A.

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Abstract

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle has caused significant economic losses to livestock producers and has proven difficult to eradicate. It is suspected that cattle movement across different farms and regions is one of the key factors of bTB transmission in the United States. Prior attempts to model the epidemiology of bTB infection within cattle to predict disease transmission have not adequately captured the behavioral aspects of trade. A better understanding of livestock trade patterns would help in predicting disease transmission and the associated economic effects. In this paper, we develop a gravity model of livestock trade and link it to an epidemiological model of bTB transmission, with the goal being that this information could lead to improved disease surveillance and management. Our findings suggest that feedbacks between jointly determined disease dynamics and trade system matter and should be considered together for efficient disease management.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin with number 49382.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49382

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Related research
Keywords: Bovine tuberculosis; Gravity model; disease management; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Puhani, Patrick A, 2000. " The Heckman Correction for Sample Selection and Its Critique," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-26.

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