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An Econometric Analysis Of The Effects Of Market Liberalization On Price Dynamics And Price Volatility

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  • Chavas, Jean-Paul
  • Kim, Kwansoo

Abstract

The paper investigates price dynamics under market liberalization, with a focus on the effects of lowering price floors. We analyze price dynamics by specifying and estimating a dynamic Tobit model under time-varying volatility, where the market price is censored by a government-set support price. The model is applied to the U.S. butter market over the last three decades. The econometric results show how the price support program affects both expected prices and the volatility of prices. It is found that the censoring effects of a price support program can be significant and large even if the price support is set relatively low.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL with number 20649.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea01:20649

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Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis;

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  1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1992. "Estimating limited-dependent rational expectations models with an application to exchange rate determination in a target zone," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 141-163.
  2. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 1991. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521326162, October.
  3. Pesaran, M.H. & Samiei, H., 1991. "An Analysis of the determination of Dutsche Mark/French Franc Exchange rate in a Discrete-Time Target-Zone Model," Papers 38, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
  4. Robinson, P M & Bera, Anil K & Jarque, Carlos M, 1985. "Tests for Serial Dependence in Limited Dependent Variable Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 629-38, October.
  5. Holt, Matthew T & Johnson, Stanley R, 1989. "Bounded Price Variation and Rational Expectations in an Endogenous Switching Model of the U.S. Corn Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 605-13, November.
  6. Morgan, I G & Trevor, R G, 1999. "Limit Moves as Censored Observations of Equilibrium Futures Price in GARCH Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 397-408, October.
  7. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
  8. Shonkwiler, J S & Maddala, G S, 1985. "Modeling Expectations of Bounded Prices: An Application to the Market for Corn," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 697-702, November.
  9. Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear impulse response functions," Staff Reports 65, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Lee, Lung-fei, 1999. "Estimation of dynamic and ARCH Tobit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 355-390, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Femenia, Fabienne, 2010. "Impacts of Stockholding Behaviour on Agricultural Market Volatility: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 59(3).
  2. van Winsen, Frankwin & Wauters, Erwin & Lauwers, Ludwig H. & de Mey, Yann & Van Passel, Steven & Vancauteren, Mark, 2011. "Combining risk perception and risk attitude: A comprehensive individual risk behavior model," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115749, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Wocken, Meike & Kneib, Thomas, 2012. "Tobit regression to estimate impact of EU market intervention in dairy sector," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122528, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. McNamara, Kevin T. & Weiss, Christoph R., 2005. "Farm Household Income and On-and-Off Farm Diversification," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(01), April.

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