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Finite Sample Properties Of Nonstationary Binary Response Models: A Monte Carlo And Response Surface Analysis

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  • Riddel, Mary C.

Abstract

This paper investigates the finite sample distributions of maximum likelihood estimators for nonstationary probit models. We find that, analogous to standard OLS models, commonly used tests statistics almost always reject the null hypothesis of no relationship between xt and a latent yt, even when they are, in fact, generated by independent random walks. However, if cointegrating relationships are present in the model, parameter distributions are better behaved and standard z and Wald test statistics are consistent.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL with number 21821.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea00:21821

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Keywords: Binary choice; Probit models; Nonstationay processes; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C250;

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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1998. "Asymptotics for Nonlinear Transformations of Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1182, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  3. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
  4. Alm, James & Whittington, Leslie A., 1995. "Does the Income Tax Affect Marital Decisions?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 48(4), pages 565-72, December.
  5. Alm, James & McKee, Michael J. & Skidmore, Mark, 1993. "Fiscal Pressure, Tax Competition, and the Introduction of State Lotteries," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 46(4), pages 463-76, December.
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