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Tipo de cambio real y finanzas públicas subnacionales: efectos de las depreciaciones reales en Argentina

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  • Julian Puig
  • Diego Pitetti

Abstract

El presente trabajo estudia el efecto de las depreciaciones reales sobre el escenario fiscal subnacional en Argentina para el período 1960-2017. Se analiza no sólo el efecto sobre gastos, ingresos y deuda subnacional a nivel agregado, sino que también se focaliza en la composición de estas variables. El gasto se analiza según su clasificación económica -corrientes y de capital-, los ingresos según provengan de recaudación propia o de transferencias de otras jurisdicciones -principalmente del Gobierno Nacional- y la deuda según el prestamista -Gobierno Nacional u organismos multinacionales- .Los resultados sugieren que, ante una depreciación real, tanto los gastos como los ingresos caen, experimentando estos últimos una caída de mayor magnitud que deteriora el resultado fiscal y, a su vez, los efectos son heterogéneos entre las provincias. Por otra parte, la deuda pública provincial, reacciona positivamente ante dicho shock dada la elevada proporción de deuda denominada en moneda extranjera respecto del total.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian Puig & Diego Pitetti, 2020. "Tipo de cambio real y finanzas públicas subnacionales: efectos de las depreciaciones reales en Argentina," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4394, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    • Handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4394
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2015. "Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 15-31.
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    3. Michael T. Owyang & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2013. "Are government spending multipliers greater during periods of slack? evidence from 20th century historical data," Working Papers 2013-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
    5. Daniel Heymann & Alejandro Nakab, 2017. "Temas tradicionales Sobre Ciclos Stop-Go y Devaluaciones Contractivas," Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET) 2017-18, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET).
    6. Jorge Puig, 2014. "Multiplicador del gasto público en Argentina," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 60, pages 188-210, January-D.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tipo de cambio real; depreciación; finanzas públicas subnacionales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

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