Modeling Amazon Deforestation for Policy Purposes

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Modeling Amazon Deforestation for Policy Purposes

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Clive W. J. Granger () (University of California - San Diego)
Lykke E. Andersen () (Institute for Advanced Development Studies)

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Abstract

Brazil has long ago removed most of the perverse government incentives that stimulated massive deforestation in the Amazon in the 70s and 80s, but one highly controversial policy remains: Road building. While data is now abundantly available due to the constant satellite surveillance of the Amazon, the analytical methods typically used to analyze the impact of roads on natural vegetation cover are methodologically weak and not very helpful to guide public policy. This paper discusses the respective weaknesses of typical GIS analysis and typical municipality level regression analysis, and shows what would be needed to construct an ideal model of deforestation processes. It also presents an alternative approach that is much less demanding in terms of modeling and estimation and more useful for policy makers as well.

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Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Development Studies in its series Development Research Working Paper Series with number 12/2006.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:adv:wpaper:200612

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounting
Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2007-03-10 (All new papers)
NEP-ENV-2007-03-10 (Environmental Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
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Lykke E. Andersen & Juan Carlos Ledezma & Martin Vargas, 2006. "Un Mosaico de Conservación, Desarrollo Humano y Tensiones en el Corredor Amboró-Madidi," Development Research Working Paper Series 04/2006, Institute for Advanced Development Studies. [Downloadable!]
Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2004. "Thick modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 323-343, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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