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Working Paper 73 - Economic and Political Causes of Civil Wars in Africa: Some Econometric Results

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Abstract

In this paper, we investigated whether civil wars in Africa have economic andpolitical causes. The model is based on the Collier-Hoeffler “greed” and “grievance”theory in which rebels will conduct a civil war for “loot-seeking” and “justiceseeking”reasons. Using logit models the propositions were tested empirically. Inparticular, six variables, GDP per capita growth rate in the preceding period, theamount of natural resources (proxied by primary commodity exports-GDP ratio),peace duration, democracy, social fractionalisation, and population size aresignificant and strong determinants of the onset of civil wars in Africa. The policyimplication is the combination of economic diversification, poverty and populationreduction, and political reforms so as to prevent conflict situations in Africancountries.

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  • John Anyanwu, 2002. "Working Paper 73 - Economic and Political Causes of Civil Wars in Africa: Some Econometric Results," Working Paper Series 207, African Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:207
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    1. Hegre, Håvard, 2001. "Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 95(1), pages 33-48, March.
    2. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
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    1. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 21/060, African Governance and Development Institute..
    2. Philippe Hugon, 2003. "Les conflits armés en Afrique : mythes et limites de l'analyse économique," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(176), pages 829-856.
    3. Chih‐Yu Yang & Ching‐Cheng Lu & Yung‐Ho Chiu & Tai‐Yu Lin, 2022. "Analysis of coffee production efficiency and productivity strategy in African and non‐African countries," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 946-969, October.
    4. Mohammad Ajmal Hameed & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Rasheda Khanam, 2023. "Analyzing the Consequences of Long-Run Civil War on Unemployment Rate: Empirical Evidence from Afghanistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    5. John C. Anyanwu, 2014. "Oil Wealth, Ethno‐Religious‐Linguistic Fractionalization and Civil Wars in Africa: Cross‐Country Evidence," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 209-236, June.

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