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Risk of Rare Disasters, Euler Equation Errors and the Performance of the C-CAPM

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Author Info

  • Olaf Posch

    ()
    (Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Andreas Schrimpf

    ()
    (Bank for International Settlements and CREATES)

Abstract

This paper shows that the consumption-based asset pricing model (C-CAPM) with low-probability disaster risk rationalizes large pricing errors, i.e. Euler equation errors. This result is remarkable, since Lettau and Ludvigson (2009) show that leading asset pricing models cannot explain sizeable pricing errors in the C-CAPM. We also show (analytically and in a Monte Carlo study) that implausible estimates of risk aversion and time preference are not puzzling in this framework and emerge as a result of rational pricing errors. While this bias essentially removes the pricing error in the traditional endowment economy, a production economy with stochastically changing investment opportunities generates large and persistent empirical pricing errors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2012-32.

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Length: 45
Date of creation: 11 Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2012-32

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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

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Keywords: Euler equation errors; Rare disasters; C-CAPM;

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  1. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Olaf Posch, 2007. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," CREATES Research Papers 2007-23, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  4. Mark Rubinstein, 1976. "The Valuation of Uncertain Income Streams and the Pricing of Options," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 407-425, Autumn.
  5. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
  6. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Christian Julliard & Anisha Ghosh, 2008. "Can rare events explain the equity premium puzzle?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4808, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  9. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 1999. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: a cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying," Staff Reports 93, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. R. C. Merton, 1970. "Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-time Model," Working papers 58, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  11. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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