Forecasting with Universal Approximators and a Learning Algorithm
AbstractThis paper applies three universal approximators for forecasting. They are the Artificial Neural Networks, the Kolmogorov- Gabor polynomials, as well as the Elliptic Basis Function Networks. Even though forecast combination has a long history in econometrics focus has not been on proving loss bounds for the combination rules applied. We apply the Weighted Average Algorithm (WAA) of Kivinen and Warmuth (1999) for which such loss bounds exist. Specifically, one can bound the worst case performance of the WAA compared to the performance of the best single model in the set of models combined from. The use of universal approximators along with a combination scheme for which explicit loss bounds exist should give a solid theoretical foundation to the way the forecasts are performed. The practical performance will be investigated by considering various monthly postwar macroeconomic data sets for the G7 as well as the Scandinavian countries.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2009-18.
Date of creation: 11 May 2009
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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/
Forecasting; Universal Approximators; Elliptic Basis Function Network; Forecast Combination; Weighted Average Algorithm;
Other versions of this item:
- Kock Anders Bredahl, 2011. "Forecasting with Universal Approximators and a Learning Algorithm," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-32, October.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-05-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2009-05-16 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ECM-2009-05-16 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2009-05-16 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2009-05-16 (Forecasting)
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- Anders Bredahl Kock & Timo Teräsvirta, 2010. "Forecasting with nonlinear time series models," CREATES Research Papers 2010-01, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
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