The agricultural and the democratic transitions - Causality and the Roundup model
AbstractLong-run development (in income) causes a large fall in the share of agriculture commonly known as the agricultural transition. We confirm that this conventional wisdom is strongly supported by the data. Long-run development (in income) also causes a large increase in democracy known as the democratic transition. Elsewhere we have shown that it is almost as strong as the agricultural transition. Recently, a method has been presented to weed out spuriousness. It makes the democratic transition go away by turning income insignificant, when it is supplemented by a set of formal controls. We show that the same method makes the agricultural transition go away as well. Hence, it seems to be a method that kills far too much, as suggested by the subtitle. This suggestion leads to a discussion of the very meaning of long-run causality.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2009-06.
Date of creation: 19 May 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/
Long-run growth; transitions; causality and spuriousness;
Other versions of this item:
- Erich Gundlach & Martin Paldam, 2009. "The agricultural and the democratic transitions. Causality and the Roundup model," Kiel Working Papers 1521, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
- P5 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems
- Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
- H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
- H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
- O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2009-05-30 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2009-05-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2009-05-30 (Development)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2008.
"Income and Democracy,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 808-42, June.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2005. "Income and Democracy," NBER Working Papers 11205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Yared, Pierre, 2005. "Income and Democracy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Olsson, Ola & Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2000.
"Biogeography and Long-Run Economic Development,"
Working Papers in Economics
26, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 11 Aug 2000.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.