The agricultural and the democratic transitions - Causality and the Roundup model
AbstractLong-run development (in income) causes a large fall in the share of agriculture commonly known as the agricultural transition. We confirm that this conventional wisdom is strongly supported by the data. Long-run development (in income) also causes a large increase in democracy known as the democratic transition. Elsewhere we have shown that it is almost as strong as the agricultural transition. Recently, a method has been presented to weed out spuriousness. It makes the democratic transition go away by turning income insignificant, when it is supplemented by a set of formal controls. We show that the same method makes the agricultural transition go away as well. Hence, it seems to be a method that kills far too much, as suggested by the subtitle. This suggestion leads to a discussion of the very meaning of long-run causality.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2009-06.
Date of creation: 19 May 2009
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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/
Long-run growth; transitions; causality and spuriousness;
Other versions of this item:
- Erich Gundlach & Martin Paldam, 2009. "The agricultural and the democratic transitions. Causality and the Roundup model," Kiel Working Papers 1521, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
- P5 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems
- Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
- H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
- H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
- O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2009-05-30 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2009-05-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2009-05-30 (Development)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olsson, Ola & Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2000.
"Biogeography and Long-Run Economic Development,"
Working Papers in Economics
26, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 11 Aug 2000.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2008.
"Income and Democracy,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 808-42, June.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Yared, Pierre, 2005. "Income and Democracy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2005. "Income and Democracy," NBER Working Papers 11205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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