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Asymmetric Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic?

In: Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007

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  • Roman Horvath

Abstract

This paper analyses a hypothesis, whether an asymmetric monetary policy could contribute to the undershooting of the inflation targets of the Czech National Bank in the years 1998-2007. To this goal, a non-linear Taylor Rule has been estimated. The results indicate that – upon the introduction of inflation targeting – the Czech National Bank responded more aggressively to forecasts of inflation heading above the target. That asymmetric monetary policy, however, disappears if we perform estimates of the monetary policy rule exclusively on the basis of more contemporary data (approx. 2002-2007). Therefore, it could be deemed that symmetric handling of the inflation targets prevailed in the past several years.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Juraj Antal & Zuzana Antonicova & Jan Babecky & Michal Hlavacek & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Jarek Hurnik & Ondra Kamenik & Karel Musil & Jiri Podpiera & Lubos Ruzicka & Michal Skorepa & Katerina S, 2008. "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number 01 edited by Katerina Smidkova.
    This item is provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes with number 09.

    Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:09

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    Keywords: Monetary policy rule; inflation target; Czech National Bank;

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    1. Dolado, J.J. & Maria-Dolores, R. & Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 2003. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Cahiers de recherche 18-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    2. Ramalho Joaquim J.S., 2005. "Small Sample Bias of Alternative Estimation Methods for Moment Condition Models: Monte Carlo Evidence for Covariance Structures," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Podpiera, Jirí, 2008. "The role of ad hoc factors in policy rate settings," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1003-1010, September.
    4. Bec Frédérique & Ben Salem Mélika & Collard Fabrice, 2002. "Asymmetries in Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Evidence for U.S. French and German Central Banks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-22, July.
    5. Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Targeting Inflation under Uncertainty: Policy Makers' Perspective," Research and Policy Notes 2003/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    6. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Kenneth Petersen, 2007. "Does the Federal Reserve Follow a Non-Linear Taylor Rule?," Working papers 2007-37, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    8. Surico, Paolo, 2007. "The Fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: The case of asymmetric preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 305-324, January.
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