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Does the Federal Reserve Follow a Non-Linear Taylor Rule?

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  • Kenneth Petersen

    (University of Connecticut)

Abstract

The Taylor rule has become one of the most studied strategies for monetary policy. Yet, little is known whether the Federal Reserve follows a non-linear Taylor rule. This paper employs the smooth transition regression model and asks the question: does the Federal Reserve change its policy-rule according to the level of inflation and/or the output gap? I find that the Federal Reserve does follow a non-linear Taylor rule and, more importantly, that the Federal Reserve followed a non-linear Taylor rule during the golden era of monetary policy, 1985-2005, and a linear Taylor rule throughout the dark age of monetary policy, 1960-1979. Thus, good monetary policy is associated with a non-linear Taylor rule: once inflation approaches a certain threshold, the Federal Reserve adjusts its policy-rule and begins to respond more forcefully to inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 2007-37.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2007-37

Note: I would like to thank Christian Zimmermann (adviser), Paul Beaumont, Steve Cunningham, and Philip Shaw for many good conversations about monetary policy and time series econometrics.
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Keywords: Taylor rule; Federal Reserve; non-linearity; monetary policy;

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Cited by:
  1. Martin Mandler, 2011. "Threshold effects in the monetary policy reaction function of the Deutsche Bundesbank," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201129, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  2. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
  3. Pragidis, Ioannis & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin, 2013. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in the U.S. and Brazil," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 7-2013, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
  4. Roman Horvath, 2008. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic?," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 9, pages 117-130 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  5. Vítor Castro, 2008. "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," NIPE Working Papers 19/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  6. Bhaduri, Saumitra & Sethudurai, Raja, 2013. "Non-Linear Taylor Rule through Threshold Estimation," MPRA Paper 44844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Vítor, Castro, 2011. "Can central banks' monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 228-246, December.

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