Does the Federal Reserve Follow a Non-Linear Taylor Rule?
AbstractThe Taylor rule has become one of the most studied strategies for monetary policy. Yet, little is known whether the Federal Reserve follows a non-linear Taylor rule. This paper employs the smooth transition regression model and asks the question: does the Federal Reserve change its policy-rule according to the level of inflation and/or the output gap? I find that the Federal Reserve does follow a non-linear Taylor rule and, more importantly, that the Federal Reserve followed a non-linear Taylor rule during the golden era of monetary policy, 1985-2005, and a linear Taylor rule throughout the dark age of monetary policy, 1960-1979. Thus, good monetary policy is associated with a non-linear Taylor rule: once inflation approaches a certain threshold, the Federal Reserve adjusts its policy-rule and begins to respond more forcefully to inflation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 2007-37.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Note: I would like to thank Christian Zimmermann (adviser), Paul Beaumont, Steve Cunningham, and Philip Shaw for many good conversations about monetary policy and time series econometrics.
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Postal: University of Connecticut 341 Mansfield Road, Unit 1063 Storrs, CT 06269-1063
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Fax: (860) 486-4463
Web page: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/
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Taylor rule; Federal Reserve; non-linearity; monetary policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-10-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-10-06 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2007-10-06 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-10-06 (Monetary Economics)
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