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Langfristige Perspektiven der öffentlichen Finanzen in Österreich. Projektionen des Staatshaushalts bis 2060

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  • Stefan Schiman

Abstract

Künftige demographische Verschiebungen, insbesondere die Zunahme der älteren Bevölkerung, werden bedeutende Auswirkungen auf den Staatshaushalt haben, da die abhängige Bevölkerung relativ zur Erwerbsbevölkerung zunimmt. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht den Einfluss des demographischen Wandels und anderer langfristiger Trends in den Bereichen Pensionen, Gesundheitsversorgung, Bildung, Pflege, Familie und Arbeitslosigkeit auf die öffentlichen Finanzen und berücksichtigt dabei bestehende gesetzliche Rahmenbedingungen. Die Ergebnisse für den öffentlichen Haushalt werden mit den Zielwerten verglichen, die sich aus der "Defizitregel" ergeben, d. h. der Einhaltung eines strukturellen Budgetdefizits von höchstens 0,45% des BIP pro Jahr. Die erwartete Wirtschaftsleistung hängt stark von den Annahmen über die langfristige Änderung der Erwerbsquote ab, deshalb werden zwei Varianten für die langfristige Projektion eingesetzt: eine Variante entsprechend der gemeinsamen Erwerbsprognose von WIFO und IHS und eine Variante auf der Grundlage der Erwerbsprognose der Europäischen Kommission. In den beiden Varianten liegt die Staatsschuldenquote langfristig zwischen 50% und 77% des BIP; gemäß der Defizitregel müsste sie dagegen auf etwa 30% sinken. In Szenarienanalysen werden die Grundannahmen variiert und Prognoserisiken aufgezeigt. Darüber hinaus werden die Ursachen und das Ausmaß der Abweichungen der aktuellen Prognose von den Werten der letzten langfristigen Budgetprognose von 2013 untersucht.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Schiman, 2016. "Langfristige Perspektiven der öffentlichen Finanzen in Österreich. Projektionen des Staatshaushalts bis 2060," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58802, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:58802
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Url, 2016. "Langfristige Prognose des Aufwands für Langzeitpflege," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58844, February.

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