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Выявление Детерминант Урожайности Пшеницы В Западной Сибири С Использованием Байесовских Сетей
[Revealing the Determinants of Wheat Yields in the Siberian Breadbasket of Russia with Bayesian Networks]

Author

Listed:
  • Prishchepov, Alexander
  • Ponkina, Elena
  • Sun, Zhanli
  • Müller, Daniel

Abstract

Повышение урожайности сельскохозяйственных культур играет решающую роль в удовлетворении растущего спроса на продовольствие в мире. Россия облада-ет значительным потенциалом увеличения сельскохозяйственного производства, не использованным в полной мере, поскольку текущая урожайность зерновых культур значительно ниже потенциально достижимой урожайности. Регион Западной Си-бири – одна из важнейших житниц России, где урожайность пшеницы особенно отстает от своего биофизического и технологического потенциала. Цель исследова-ния заключалась в оценке детерминант пространственной вариабильности урожай-ности пшеницы, основываясь на данных реальной практики земледелия сельскохо-зяйственных производителей Алтайского края в Западной Сибири. Было проведено 67 структурированных интервью о потенциальных детерминантах урожайности пшеницы с управленческим звеном сельскохозяйственных предприятий различ-ных форм собственности, включая крестьянско-фермерские хозяйства. Интервью были дополнены 149 наблюдениями, полученными на основе данных системати-ческого мониторинга сельскохозяйственного производства в Алтайском крае. В ра-боте использованы байесовские сети (БС) для представления взаимосвязей между объясняющими переменными и урожайностью пшеницы и изучения ожидаемых реакций продуктивности культуры в различных сценарных условиях. Результаты показали, что более высокая урожайность чаще достигается более крупными про-изводителями, чем средними и малыми. Результаты подтвердили наблюдения, сви-детельствующие о том, что применение удобрений и средств защиты растений, как и внедрение нового оборудования (технологий), оказывает положительное влияние на среднюю урожайность пшеницы, которая является базовой в регионе. Сценарий возрастания производственных издержек и снижения сумм осадков ожидаемо при-ведет к снижению урожайности в среднем с 7,6 до 5,3 ц/га. В целом исследование показало, что политика, направленная на увеличение урожайности сельскохозяй-ственных культур, должна учитывать развитие образовательной среды менеджеров и специалистов сельскохозяйственных предприятий и стимулировать меры по вне-сению удобрений и соблюдение рекомендаций агрономической науки. Особенный фокус государственной аграрной политики должен быть ориентирован на развитие малых форм хозяйствования. Кроме того, аграрная политика должна быть направ-лена на перспективное решение смежных проблем, одной из которых является ни-велирование происходящего усиления засушливости климата посредством внедре-ния адаптированных к засушливым условиям технологий возделывания культур.

Suggested Citation

  • Prishchepov, Alexander & Ponkina, Elena & Sun, Zhanli & Müller, Daniel, 2019. "Выявление Детерминант Урожайности Пшеницы В Западной Сибири С Использованием Байесовских Сетей [Revealing the Determinants of Wheat Yields in the Siberian Breadbasket of Russia with Bayesian Networ," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 39-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:196134
    DOI: 10.14530/se.2019.1.039-083
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian belief network; food security; land-use intensity; scenario analysis; wheat production; yield gap; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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