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Integrated scenarios for assessing biodiversity risks

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  • Joachim H. Spangenberg

    (UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Germany)

Abstract

The rapid loss of biodiversity (however measured) constitutes an urgent need to develop policy strategies that reduce the anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity. To go beyond short-term curative measures, such strategies must address the driving forces causing the pressures in an integrated fashion, covering a wide range of policy domains. The development of scenarios and their illustration by modelling are essential tools to study the aggregate human impacts on biodiversity, and to derive well founded policy options to preserve it. However, so far socio-economic, climate and biodiversity models exhibit a wide range of assumptions concerning population development, economic growth and the resulting pressures on biodiversity. This paper summarizes the efforts undertaken in the framework of the ALARM project by an interdisciplinary team of economists, climatologists, land use experts and modellers to identify pressures and drivers, and to derive effective policy strategies. It describes the challenges of such a kind of work, bringing together different world views necessarily inherent to the different fields of investigation, presents preliminary results, indicates necessary policy priorities and suggests urgent issues for future research. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Joachim H. Spangenberg, 2007. "Integrated scenarios for assessing biodiversity risks," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 343-356.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:sustdv:v:15:y:2007:i:6:p:343-356
    DOI: 10.1002/sd.320
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jari Kaivo-oja, 1999. "Alternative scenarios of social development: is analytical sustainability policy analysis possible? How?," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 140-150.
    2. Bockermann, Andreas & Meyer, Bernd & Omann, Ines & Spangenberg, Joachim H., 2005. "Modelling sustainability: Comparing an econometric (PANTA RHEI) and a systems dynamics model (SuE)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 189-210, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang & Buchgeister, Jens & Hauser, Wolfgang & Kosow, Hannah & Naegler, Tobias & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Pregger, Thomas & Prehofer, Sigrid & von Recklinghausen, Andreas & Schippl, , 2016. "Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 956-970.
    2. Maria Triviño & Wilfried Thuiller & Mar Cabeza & Thomas Hickler & Miguel B Araújo, 2011. "The Contribution of Vegetation and Landscape Configuration for Predicting Environmental Change Impacts on Iberian Birds," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(12), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Harmáčková, Zuzana V. & Vačkář, David, 2015. "Modelling regulating ecosystem services trade-offs across landscape scenarios in Třeboňsko Wetlands Biosphere Reserve, Czech Republic," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 295(C), pages 207-215.

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