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Pathway Analysis for Population‐Total Health Impacts of Toxic Metal Emissions

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  • Joseph V. Spadaro
  • Ari Rabl

Abstract

This article describes a simple model for quantifying the health impacts of toxic metal emissions. In contrast to most traditional models it calculates the expectation value of the total damage (summed over the total population and over all time) for typical emission sites, rather than “worst‐case” estimates for specific sites or episodes. Such a model is needed for the evaluation of many environmental policy measures, e.g., the optimal level of pollution taxes or emission limits. Based on the methodology that has been developed by USEPA for the assessment of multimedia pathways, the equations and parameters are assembled for the assessment of As, Cd, Cr, Hg, Ni, and Pb, and some typical results are presented (the dose from seafood is not included and for Hg the results are extremely uncertain); the model is freely available on the web. The structure of the model is very simple because, as we show, if the parameters can be approximated by time‐independent constants (the case for the USEPA methodology), the total impacts can be calculated with steady‐state models even though the environment is never in steady state. The collective ingestion dose is found to be roughly 2 orders of magnitude larger than the collective dose via inhalation. The uncertainties are large, easily an order of magnitude, the main uncertainties arising from the parameter values of the model, in particular the transfer factors. Using linearized dose‐response functions, estimates are provided for cancers due to As, Cd, Cr, and Ni as well as IQ loss due to Pb emissions in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph V. Spadaro & Ari Rabl, 2004. "Pathway Analysis for Population‐Total Health Impacts of Toxic Metal Emissions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(5), pages 1121-1141, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:24:y:2004:i:5:p:1121-1141
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00514.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rabl, Ari, 1996. "Discounting of long-term costs: What would future generations prefer us to do?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 137-145, June.
    2. Pierre Crettaz & David Pennington & Lorenz Rhomberg & Kevin Brand & Olivier Jolliet, 2002. "Assessing Human Health Response in Life Cycle Assessment Using ED10s and DALYs: Part 1—Cancer Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(5), pages 931-946, October.
    3. David Pennington & Pierre Crettaz & Annick Tauxe & Lorenz Rhomberg & Kevin Brand & Olivier Jolliet, 2002. "Assessing Human Health Response in Life Cycle Assessment Using ED10s and DALYs: Part 2—Noncancer Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(5), pages 947-963, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph V. Spadaro & Ari Rabl, 2008. "Global Health Impacts and Costs Due to Mercury Emissions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 603-613, June.
    2. Marko Tainio & Piotr Holnicki & Miranda M. Loh & Zbigniew Nahorski, 2014. "Intake Fraction Variability Between Air Pollution Emission Sources Inside an Urban Area," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(11), pages 2021-2034, November.
    3. Vincent Nedellec & Ari Rabl, 2016. "Costs of Health Damage from Atmospheric Emissions of Toxic Metals: Part 1—Methods and Results," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(11), pages 2081-2095, November.

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