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The Importance of Adverse Selection in the Credit Card Market: Evidence from Randomized Trials of Credit Card Solicitations

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  • SUMIT AGARWAL
  • SOUPHALA CHOMSISENGPHET
  • CHUNLIN LIU

Abstract

Analyzing unique data from multiple large‐scale randomized marketing trials of preapproved credit card solicitations by a large financial institution, we find that consumers responding to the lender's inferior solicitation offers have poorer credit quality attributes. This finding supports the argument that riskier type borrowers are liquidity or credit constrained and, thus, have higher reservation loan interest rates. We also find a more severe deterioration ex post in the credit quality of the booked accounts of inferior offer types relative to superior offers. After controlling for a cardholder's observable risk attributes, demographic characteristics, and adverse economic shocks, we find that cardholders who responded to the inferior credit card offers are significantly more likely to default ex post. Our results provide evidence on the importance of adverse selection effects in the credit card market.

Suggested Citation

  • Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Chunlin Liu, 2010. "The Importance of Adverse Selection in the Credit Card Market: Evidence from Randomized Trials of Credit Card Solicitations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 743-754, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:42:y:2010:i:4:p:743-754
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2010.00305.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Conor B. Hamill & Raad Khraishi & Simona Gherghel & Jerrard Lawrence & Salvatore Mercuri & Ramin Okhrati & Greig A. Cowan, 2023. "Agent-based Modelling of Credit Card Promotions," Papers 2311.01901, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    2. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Tang, Huan & Yannelis, Constantine, 2022. "Measuring the welfare cost of asymmetric information in consumer credit markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 821-840.
    3. Sumit Agarwal & Amit Bubna & Molly Lipscomb, 2021. "Timing to the Statement: Understanding Fluctuations in Consumer Credit Use," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5124-5144, August.
    4. Arpit Gupta & Christopher Hansman, 2022. "Selection, Leverage, and Default in the Mortgage Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(2), pages 720-770.
    5. Suting Hong & Robert M. Hunt & Konstantinos Serfes, 2023. "Dynamic Pricing of Credit Cards and the Effects of Regulation," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 64(1), pages 81-131, August.
    6. Ginger Zhe Jin & Michael Luca & Daniel Martin, 2022. "Complex Disclosure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3236-3261, May.
    7. Daniel Grodzicki & Alexei Alexandrov & Özlem Bedre-Defolie & Sergei Koulayev, 2023. "Consumer Demand for Credit Card Services," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 273-311, June.
    8. Santiago Carbo-Valverde & Héctor Pérez Saiz & Hongyu Xiao, 2023. "Geographical and Cultural Proximity in Retail Banking," Staff Working Papers 23-2, Bank of Canada.
    9. Tian, Geran & Wang, Xiaowen & Wu, Weixing, 2021. "Borrow low, lend high: Credit arbitrage by sophisticated investors," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Allen N. Berger & Christa H. S. Bouwman & Lars Norden & Raluca A. Roman & Gregory F. Udell & Teng Wang, 2021. "Piercing Through Opacity: Relationships and Credit Card Lending to Consumers and Small Businesses During Normal Times and the COVID-19 Crisis," Working Papers 21-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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