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The macroeconomic impact of COVID‐19 in Mozambique: A social accounting matrix approach

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  • Rosario Betho
  • Marcia Chelengo
  • Sam Jones
  • Michael Keller
  • Ibraimo Hassane Mussagy
  • Dirk van Seventer
  • Finn Tarp

Abstract

This study assesses the economic costs of COVID‐19 and the state of emergency implemented by the Government of Mozambique. We use a social accounting matrix multiplier analysis to estimate the effects of the pandemic on the economy. Our simulations suggest that the Mozambican economy lost 3.6 percentage points of GDP growth in 2020 and that employment was 1.9 percentage points down. These losses were primarily driven by export shocks, the most heavily affected sectors being trade and accommodation and mining. Mozambique faces a critical challenge of how to promote economic diversification and reduce vulnerability to foreign shocks.

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  • Rosario Betho & Marcia Chelengo & Sam Jones & Michael Keller & Ibraimo Hassane Mussagy & Dirk van Seventer & Finn Tarp, 2022. "The macroeconomic impact of COVID‐19 in Mozambique: A social accounting matrix approach," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 823-860, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:34:y:2022:i:4:p:823-860
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.3601
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giulia Barletta & Finório Castigo & Eva‐Maria Egger & Michael Keller & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on consumption poverty in Mozambique," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 771-802, May.
    2. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33044, December.
    3. Steven Kapsos, 2006. "The Employment Intensity of Growth: Trends and Macroeconomic Determinants," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jesus Felipe & Rana Hasan (ed.), Labor Markets in Asia, chapter 0, pages 143-201, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. António S. Cruz & Fausto Mafambissa & Mónica Magáua & Vincenzo Salvucci & Dirk van Seventer, 2018. "A 2015 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 020, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Eva-Maria Egger & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2023. "Evolution of Multidimensional Poverty in Crisis-Ridden Mozambique," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 485-519, April.
    6. António S. Cruz & Fausto J. Mafambissa & Mónica Magáua & Vincenzo Salvucci & Dirk van Seventer, 2018. "A 2015 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-20, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Eva‐Maria Egger & Sam Jones & Patricia Justino & Ivan Manhique & Ricardo Santos, 2023. "Africa's lockdown dilemma: High poverty and low trust," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 1648-1666, October.
    8. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33748, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Santos & Eva-Maria Egger & Vincenzo Salvucci, 2021. "Horizontal and intersecting inequalities in Mozambique: 1997-2017," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-106, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Giulia Barletta & Finório Castigo & Eva‐Maria Egger & Michael Keller & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on consumption poverty in Mozambique," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 771-802, May.
    3. Júlio Vicente Cateia & Maurício Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Terciane Sabadini Carvalho & Luc Savard, 2023. "Funding schemes for infrastructure investment and poverty alleviation in Africa: Evidence from Guinea‐Bissau," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1505-1529, August.
    4. Nilifer Anaç & Eva-Maria Egger & Sam Jones & Ricardo Santos & Alex Warren-Rodriguez, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on urban informal workers in Maputo," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-173, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Sam Jones & Ivan Manhique, 2021. "Informal freelancers in the time of COVID-19: Insights from a digital matching platform in Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-95, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2021. "Poverty and vulnerability in Mozambique: An analysis of dynamics and correlates in light of the Covid‐19 crisis using synthetic panels," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1895-1918, November.

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