IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v39y2019i4p481-498.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How to hedge if the payment date is uncertain?

Author

Listed:
  • Olaf Korn
  • Alexander Merz

Abstract

This paper investigates how firms should hedge price risk when payment dates are uncertain. We derive variance‐minimizing strategies and show that the instrument choice is essential for this problem, similar to the choice between a strip and a stack hedge. The first setting concentrates on futures hedges, whereas the second allows for nonlinear derivatives. In both settings, firms should take positions in derivatives with different maturities simultaneously. We present an empirical analysis for commodities and exchange rates, showing that in both settings the optimal strategy clearly outperforms the commonly used heuristic strategies which consider only one hedging instrument at a time.

Suggested Citation

  • Olaf Korn & Alexander Merz, 2019. "How to hedge if the payment date is uncertain?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 481-498, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:39:y:2019:i:4:p:481-498
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.21987
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.21987
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.21987?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moschini, Giancarlo & Lapan, Harvey, 1995. "The Hedging Role of Options and Futures under Joint Price, Basis, and Production Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1025-1049, November.
    2. Patrick Bolton & Hui Chen & Neng Wang, 2011. "A Unified Theory of Tobin's q, Corporate Investment, Financing, and Risk Management," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1545-1578, October.
    3. Olaf Korn, 2010. "How firms should hedge: An extension," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 834-845, September.
    4. Olivier Mahul & J. David Cummins, 2008. "Hedging under counterparty credit uncertainty," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 248-263, March.
    5. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    6. Adam, Tim R. & Fernando, Chitru S., 2006. "Hedging, speculation, and shareholder value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 283-309, August.
    7. Leland, Hayne E, 1972. "Theory of the Firm Facing Uncertain Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 278-291, June.
    8. Karp, Larry S, 1988. "Dynamic Hedging with Uncertain Production," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(4), pages 621-637, November.
    9. Gerald D. Gay & Jouahn Nam & Marian Turac, 2002. "How Firms Manage Risk: The Optimal Mix Of Linear And Non‐Linear Derivatives," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(4), pages 82-93, January.
    10. Adam-Müller, Axel F.A. & Nolte, Ingmar, 2011. "Cross hedging under multiplicative basis risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2956-2964, November.
    11. Antonio S. Mello & John E. Parsons, 1995. "Maturity Structure Of A Hedge Matters: Lessons From The Metallgesellschaft Debacle," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 8(1), pages 106-121, March.
    12. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
    13. Bhagwan Chowdhry, 1995. "Corporate Hedging of Exchange Risk When Foreign Currency Cash Flow Is Uncertain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(6), pages 1083-1090, June.
    14. Gregory W. Brown & Peter R. Crabb & David Haushalter, 2006. "Are Firms Successful at Selective Hedging?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 2925-2950, November.
    15. Boyle, Phelim P, 1989. " The Quality Option and Timing Option in Futures Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 101-113, March.
    16. Rampini, Adriano A. & Sufi, Amir & Viswanathan, S., 2014. "Dynamic risk management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 271-296.
    17. Donald Lien, 2003. "The effect of liquidity constraints on futures hedging," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 603-613, June.
    18. Axel F. A. Adam‐Müller & Argyro Panaretou, 2009. "Risk management with options and futures under liquidity risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 297-318, April.
    19. Benninga, Simon & Eldor, Rafael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1985. "Optimal international hedging in commodity and currency forward markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 537-552, December.
    20. Leland L. Johnson, 1960. "The Theory of Hedging and Speculation in Commodity Futures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 27(3), pages 139-151.
    21. Stephen Craig Pirrong, 1997. "Metallgesellschaft: A prudent hedger ruined, or a wildcatter on NYMEX?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 543-578, August.
    22. Adam, Tim R. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Salas, Jesus M., 2017. "Why do firms engage in selective hedging? Evidence from the gold mining industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 269-282.
    23. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1980. "Hedging and Joint Production: Theory and Illustrations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 487-498, May.
    24. Olivier Mahul, 2002. "Hedging in Futures and Options Markets with Basis Risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 59-72, January.
    25. Rolfo, Jacques, 1980. "Optimal Hedging under Price and Quantity Uncertainty: The Case of a Cocoa Producer," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 100-116, February.
    26. Briys, Eric & Crouhy, Michel & Schlesinger, Harris, 1993. "Optimal hedging in a futures market with background noise and basis risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 949-960, June.
    27. Gregory W. Brown & Klaus Bjerre Toft, 2002. "How Firms Should Hedge," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1283-1324.
    28. Wong, Kit Pong, 2003. "Currency hedging with options and futures," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 833-839, October.
    29. Harvey Lapan & Giancarlo Moschini, 1994. "Futures Hedging Under Price, Basis, and Production Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(3), pages 465-477.
    30. Gordon M. Bodnar & Gregory S. Hayt & Richard C. Marston, 1998. "1998 Wharton Survey of Financial Risk Management by US Non-Financial Firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(4), Winter.
    31. Kerkvliet, Joe & Moffett, Michael H., 1991. "The Hedging of an Uncertain Future Foreign Currency Cash Flow," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 565-578, December.
    32. Simon Benninga & Rafael Eldor & Itzhak Zilcha, 1984. "The optimal hedge ratio in unbiased futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 155-159, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Korn, Olaf & Merz, Alexander, 2016. "How to hedge if the payment date is uncertain?," CFR Working Papers 07-14 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    2. Korn, Olaf, 2009. "Hedging price risk when payment dates are uncertain," CFR Working Papers 07-14, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    3. Korn, Olaf & Rieger, Marc Oliver, 2016. "Hedging with regret," CFR Working Papers 16-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    4. Korn, Olaf & Rieger, Marc Oliver, 2019. "Hedging with regret," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 192-205.
    5. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, December.
    6. Akron, Sagi, 2019. "The optimal derivative-based corporate hedging strategies under equity-linked managerial compensation," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    7. Koziol, Philipp, 2014. "Inflation and interest rate derivatives for FX risk management: Implications for exporting firms under real wealth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 459-472.
    8. Mohamed Mnasri & Georges Dionne & Jean-Pierre Gueyie, 2013. "The Maturity Structure of Corporate Hedging: the Case of the U.S. Oil and Gas Industry," Cahiers de recherche 1337, CIRPEE.
    9. Dionne, Georges & Gueyie, Jean-Pierre & Mnasri, Mohamed, 2018. "Dynamic corporate risk management: Motivations and real implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 97-111.
    10. Mnasri, Mohamed & Dionne, Georges & Gueyie, Jean-Pierre, 2013. "How do firms hedge risks? Empirical evidence from U.S. oil and gas producers," Working Papers 13-3, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    11. Mo, Kun & Suvankulov, Farrukh & Griffiths, Sophie, 2021. "Financial distress and commodity hedging: Evidence from Canadian oil firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    12. Cao, Min & Conlon, Thomas, 2023. "Composite jet fuel cross-hedging," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    13. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Ramazan Gençay, 2016. "Commodity futures hedging, risk aversion and the hedging horizon," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(15), pages 1534-1560, December.
    14. Adam-Müller, Axel F.A. & Nolte, Ingmar, 2011. "Cross hedging under multiplicative basis risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2956-2964, November.
    15. Fehle, Frank & Tsyplakov, Sergey, 2005. "Dynamic risk management: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 3-47, October.
    16. Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Raman, Vikas, 2020. "The informativeness of derivatives use: Evidence from corporate disclosure through public announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Augusto Castillo R. & Rafael Aguila, 2005. "Estrategias Optimas De Cobertura En Presencia De Incertidumbre En Costos Y Cantidad," Abante, Escuela de Administracion. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 8(2), pages 88-110.
    18. Furió, Dolores & Torró, Hipòlit, 2020. "Optimal hedging under biased energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Håkan Jankensgård, 2019. "Does Managerial Power Increase Selective Hedging? Evidence from the Oil and Gas Industry," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, April.
    20. Felipe Aldunate & Jaime Casassus, 2012. "Consumption and Hedging in Oil†Importing Developing Countries," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(5), pages 896-928, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:39:y:2019:i:4:p:481-498. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.