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Indian equity options: Smile, risk premiums, and efficiency

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  • Sonali Jain
  • Jayanth R. Varma
  • Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla

Abstract

We study the pricing of equity options in India which is one of the world's largest options markets. Our findings are supportive of market efficiency: A parsimonious smile‐adjusted Black model fits option prices well, and the implied volatility (IV) has incremental predictive power for future volatility. However, the risk premium embedded in IV for Single Stock Options appears to be higher than in other markets. The study suggests that even a very liquid market with substantial participation of global institutional investors can have structural features that lead to systematic departures from the behavior of a fully rational market while being “microefficient.”

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  • Sonali Jain & Jayanth R. Varma & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla, 2019. "Indian equity options: Smile, risk premiums, and efficiency," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 150-163, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:39:y:2019:i:2:p:150-163
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.21971
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    Cited by:

    1. Sudarshan Kumar & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma & Vineet Virmani, 2023. "Harvesting the volatility smile in a large emerging market: A Dynamic Nelson–Siegel approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1615-1644, November.
    2. Sumit Saurav & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma, 2024. "Role of derivatives market in attenuating underreaction to left‐tail risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 484-517, March.
    3. Sumit Saurav & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma, 2023. "Belief distortion near 52W high and low: Evidence from Indian equity options market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1531-1558, November.
    4. Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Sumit Saurav & Jayanth R. Varma, 2022. "Lottery and bubble stocks and the cross‐section of option‐implied tail risks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 231-249, February.
    5. Agarwalla, Sobhesh Kumar & Varma, Jayanth R. & Virmani, Vineet, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on tail risk: Evidence from Nifty index options," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    6. Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma & Vineet Virmani, 2021. "Rational repricing of risk during COVID‐19: Evidence from Indian single stock options market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(10), pages 1498-1519, October.

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