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Futures and options expiration‐day effects: The Indian evidence

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  • Vipul

Abstract

This study examines the effect of expiration of options and futures on price, volatility, and volume of the underlying shares. The values of these variables 1 day prior to expiration, on the day of expiration, and 1 day subsequent to expiration are compared with those 1 and 2 weeks before and after the corresponding day with the use of the Wilcoxon matched‐pairs signed‐ranks test. The underlying share prices tend to get marginally depressed a day prior to expiration and to strengthen significantly a day after the expiration. The rate of increase of returns on the day after the expiration is abnormally high. An abnormally high volume is also observed on the expiration day; it starts building up a day prior to expiration and continues into the following day for shares with relatively high derivative volumes. These effects can be largely ascribed to arbitrage activities and the restriction on short sales in the Indian cash market. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:1045–1065, 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Vipul, 2005. "Futures and options expiration‐day effects: The Indian evidence," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(11), pages 1045-1065, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:25:y:2005:i:11:p:1045-1065
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    Cited by:

    1. Sonali Jain & Jayanth R. Varma & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla, 2019. "Indian equity options: Smile, risk premiums, and efficiency," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 150-163, February.
    2. Sankar, Ganesh & Ramachandran, Shankar & Lukose P J, Jijo, 2020. "Dynamics of variance risk premium: Evidence from India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 321-334.
    3. Alok Dixit & Shivam Singh, 2018. "Ad-Hoc Black–Scholes vis-à-vis TSRV-based Black–Scholes: Evidence from Indian Options Market," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 57-88, March.
    4. Henryk Gurgul & Milena Suliga, 2020. "Impact of futures expiration on underlying stocks: intraday analysis for Warsaw Stock Exchange," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(3), pages 869-904, September.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2023. "Witching days and abnormal profits in the us stock market," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 2182016-218, December.
    6. Tanuj Nandan & Puja Agrawal, 2016. "Pricing Efficiency in CNX Nifty Index Options Using the Black–Scholes Model: A Comparative Study of Alternate Volatility Measures," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 10(2), pages 281-304, May.
    7. Bogdan Batrinca & Christian W. Hesse & Philip C. Treleaven, 0. "Developing a Volume Forecasting Model," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 0, pages 1.
    8. Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Sumit Saurav & Jayanth R. Varma, 2022. "Lottery and bubble stocks and the cross‐section of option‐implied tail risks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 231-249, February.
    9. Gurmeet Singh & Muneer Shaik, 2020. "Re-examining the Expiration Effects of Index Futures: Evidence from India," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 16-23.
    10. Bogdan Batrinca & Christian W. Hesse & Philip C. Treleaven, 2017. "Developing a Volume Forecasting Model," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-1.
    11. Bogdan Batrinca & Christian W. Hesse & Philip C. Treleaven, 2020. "Expiration day effects on European trading volumes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1603-1638, April.
    12. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Simsek, Koray D., 2016. "Derivative markets in emerging economies: A survey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-102.

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