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Witching Days and Abnormal Profits in the US Stock Market

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Alex Plastun

Abstract

This paper examines price effects related to witching days in the US stock market using both weekly and daily data for three major indices, namely the Dow Jones, SP500 and Nasdaq, over the period 2000-2021. First it analyses whether or not anomalies in price behaviour arise from witching by using various parametric (Student’s t-test, and ANOVA) and non-parametric (Mann-Whitney) tests as well as an event study method and regressions with dummies; then it investigates whether or not any detected anomalies give rise to profit opportunities by applying a trading simulation approach. The results suggest the presence of the anomaly in daily returns on witching days which can be exploited by means of suitably designed trading strategies to earn abnormal profits, especially in the case of the Nasdaq index. Such evidence is inconsistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2021. "Witching Days and Abnormal Profits in the US Stock Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 9360, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9360
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp9360.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vipul, 2005. "Futures and options expiration‐day effects: The Indian evidence," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(11), pages 1045-1065, November.
    2. Chung, Huimin & Hseu, Mei-Maun, 2008. "Expiration day effects of Taiwan index futures: The case of the Singapore and Taiwan Futures Exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 107-120, April.
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    4. Ying‐Foon Chow & Haynes H. M. Yung & Hua Zhang, 2003. "Expiration day effects: The case of Hong Kong," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 67-86, January.
    5. Hsieh, Shu-Fan & Ma, Tai, 2009. "Expiration-day effects: Does settlement price matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 290-300, March.
    6. Andy Kan, 2001. "Expiration-day effect: evidence from high-frequency data in the Hong Kong stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 107-118.
    7. Wen‐Liang Gideon Hsieh, 2009. "Expiration‐day effects on individual stocks and the overall market: Evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(10), pages 920-945, October.
    8. Gurmeet Singh & Muneer Shaik, 2020. "Re-examining the Expiration Effects of Index Futures: Evidence from India," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 16-23.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alex Plastun & Ludmila Khomutenko & Serhii Bashlai, 2022. "Is There Any Witching in the Cryptocurrency Market?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    witching days; abnormal returns; stock markets; anomalies; trading;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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