IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/fufsci/v4y2022i2ne116.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Expanding the IPAT identity to quantify backcasting sustainability scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Kristian Skånberg
  • Åsa Svenfelt

Abstract

This paper builds on four qualitative backcasting scenarios that illustrate sustainable futures in a Swedish setting. The paper complements the originally qualitative scenarios by developing an eight‐step modified and expanded IPAT model—originally describing environmental impact as a product of population, affluence, and technology—that also enables quantitative descriptions of the scenarios. The modified and expanded IPAT model is used to show how the scenarios can stay within the climate aspect of sustainability. The result is quantified descriptions of the development paths of energy‐related carbon dioxide emissions, working hours, man‐made capital stocks, recycled and nonrecycled materials used, and different types of energy used in the four scenarios. The four main findings are (a) the back‐bone instrument in making the energy system fossil‐free will, in all scenarios, substitute fossil energy with renewable energy; (b) however, to succeed with that it is necessary to use different mixes of many complementary climate policy instruments; (c) IPAT models can be modified and expanded in many different ways to act as quantitative descriptions of different technological developments and social changes in scenario exercises; (d) by disregarding gross domestic product as a proxy for affluence, and replacing it with labor and capital, behavioral concepts like sharing and prolonged product lifetimes can more easily be introduced as climate policy options in a modified and expanded IPAT model.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristian Skånberg & Åsa Svenfelt, 2022. "Expanding the IPAT identity to quantify backcasting sustainability scenarios," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:4:y:2022:i:2:n:e116
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.116
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ffo2.116?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marian R. Chertow, 2000. "The IPAT Equation and Its Variants," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 4(4), pages 13-29, October.
    2. Jie-fang Dong & Qiang Wang & Chun Deng & Xing-min Wang & Xiao-lei Zhang, 2016. "How to Move China toward a Green-Energy Economy: From a Sector Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, April.
    3. Kowalski, Katharina & Stagl, Sigrid & Madlener, Reinhard & Omann, Ines, 2009. "Sustainable energy futures: Methodological challenges in combining scenarios and participatory multi-criteria analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(3), pages 1063-1074, September.
    4. York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
    5. Mander, Sarah. L. & Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin. L. & Shackley, Simon & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul, 2008. "The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3754-3763, October.
    6. Eléonore Fauré & Åsa Svenfelt & Göran Finnveden & Alf Hornborg, 2016. "Four Sustainability Goals in a Swedish Low-Growth/Degrowth Context," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-18, October.
    7. Jarmo Vehmas, 2009. "Decomposition analysis of CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion in selected countries," International Journal of Environmental Technology and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(1/2/3), pages 47-67.
    8. Heinz Schandl & James West, 2012. "Material Flows and Material Productivity in China, Australia, and Japan," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 16(3), pages 352-364, June.
    9. Anna R. Davies & Ruth Doyle, 2015. "Transforming Household Consumption: From Backcasting to HomeLabs Experiments," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 105(2), pages 425-436, March.
    10. Malmaeus, J. Mikael & Alfredsson, Eva C., 2017. "Potential Consequences on the Economy of Low or No Growth - Short and Long Term Perspectives," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 57-64.
    11. Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Peter Kolp & Keywan Riahi & Mikiko Kainuma & Tatsuya Hanaoka, 2006. "Assessment of emissions scenarios revisited," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(3), pages 137-173, September.
    12. Wang, Q.W. & Zhou, P. & Shen, N. & Wang, S.S., 2013. "Measuring carbon dioxide emission performance in Chinese provinces: A parametric approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 324-330.
    13. Liddle, Brantley, 2014. "Impact of population, age structure, and urbanization on carbon emissions/energy consumption: Evidence from macro-level, cross-country analyses," MPRA Paper 61306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jie Yang & Xiaohong Chen, 2019. "Quantification of the Driving Factors of Water Use in the Productive Sector Change Using Various Decomposition Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4105-4121, September.
    15. Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Peter Kolp & Keywan Riahi & Mikiko Kainuma & Tatsuya Hanaoka, 2006. "Assessment of emissions scenarios revisited," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(3), pages 137-173, September.
    16. Jeroen van den Bergh & Giorgos Kallis, 2012. "Growth, A-Growth or Degrowth to Stay within Planetary Boundaries?," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 909-920.
    17. Jenerette, G. Darrel & Wu, Wanli & Goldsmith, Susan & Marussich, Wendy A. & John Roach, W., 2006. "Contrasting water footprints of cities in China and the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 346-358, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Casey, Gregory & Galor, Oded, 2017. "Is faster economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? The role of diminished population growth," MPRA Paper 76164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gregory Casey & Oded Galor, 2016. "Is economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? Investigating the impacts of diminished population growth," Working Papers 2016-8, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    3. Vélez-Henao, Johan-Andrés & Font Vivanco, David & Hernández-Riveros, Jesús-Antonio, 2019. "Technological change and the rebound effect in the STIRPAT model: A critical view," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1372-1381.
    4. Gregory Casey & Oded Galor, 2016. "Population Growth and Carbon Emissions," NBER Working Papers 22885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Claudia García-García & Catalina B. García-García & Román Salmerón, 2021. "Confronting collinearity in environmental regression models: evidence from world data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(3), pages 895-926, September.
    6. Adnan Khurshid & Abdur Rauf & Sadia Qayyum & Adrian Cantemir Calin & WenQi Duan, 2023. "Green innovation and carbon emissions: the role of carbon pricing and environmental policies in attaining sustainable development targets of carbon mitigation—evidence from Central-Eastern Europe," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 8777-8798, August.
    7. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Lars Sorge & Anne Neumann, 2019. "The Impact of Population, Affluence, Technology, and Urbanization on CO2 Emissions across Income Groups," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1812, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Lizhuang Liang & Feng Chen & Lei Shi & Shukui Niu, 2018. "NDVI-derived forest area change and its driving factors in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-19, October.
    10. Xiaoxia Shi & Haiyun Liu & Joshua Sunday Riti, 2019. "The role of energy mix and financial development in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions’ reduction: evidence from ten leading CO2 emitting countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(3), pages 695-729, October.
    11. Weibo Zhao & Dongxiao Niu, 2017. "Prediction of CO 2 Emission in China’s Power Generation Industry with Gauss Optimized Cuckoo Search Algorithm and Wavelet Neural Network Based on STIRPAT model with Ridge Regression," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Antonello Maruotti & Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro, 2023. "CO2 emissions and growth: A bivariate bidimensional mean‐variance random effects model," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), August.
    13. Fishman, Tomer & Schandl, Heinz & Tanikawa, Hiroki, 2015. "The socio-economic drivers of material stock accumulation in Japan's prefectures," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 76-84.
    14. Minda Ma & Liyin Shen & Hong Ren & Weiguang Cai & Zhili Ma, 2017. "How to Measure Carbon Emission Reduction in China’s Public Building Sector: Retrospective Decomposition Analysis Based on STIRPAT Model in 2000–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-16, September.
    15. Xie, Rui & Fang, Jiayu & Liu, Cenjie, 2017. "The effects of transportation infrastructure on urban carbon emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 199-207.
    16. Yanan Wang & Wei Chen & Minjuan Zhao & Bowen Wang, 2019. "Analysis of the influencing factors on CO2 emissions at different urbanization levels: regional difference in China based on panel estimation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(2), pages 627-645, March.
    17. Ye-Ning Wang & Qiang Zhou & Hao-Wei Wang, 2020. "Assessing Ecological Carrying Capacity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Based on a Three-Dimensional Ecological Footprint Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-18, November.
    18. Don Clifton, 2012. "Sustainable Business: Are We Heading in the Right Direction?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-18, April.
    19. Yu Sang Chang & Sung Jun Jo & Yoo-Taek Lee & Yoonji Lee, 2021. "Population Density or Populations Size. Which Factor Determines Urban Traffic Congestion?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, April.
    20. Fei Wang & Changjian Wang & Jing Chen & Zeng Li & Ling Li, 2020. "Examining the determinants of energy-related carbon emissions in Central Asia: country-level LMDI and EKC analysis during different phases," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(8), pages 7743-7769, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:4:y:2022:i:2:n:e116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2573-5152 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.