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Stochastic Kaya model and its applications

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  • Hwang, In Chang

Abstract

This paper develops a stochastic Kaya model. The elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to population, per capita GDP, energy efficiency, and fossil fuel dependence is estimated using the panel data of 132 countries from 1960 to 2010. As an application of the stochastic Kaya model, we investigate the achievement of each nation to the stabilization of carbon emissions with economic development, using a method of index decomposition analysis. In addition, carbon emissions are projected by 2050 using the model. One of the main findings is that assuming the unit elasticity for each driving force underestimates the scale effect (population change and economic growth) and overestimates the counteracting technology effect. This results in significant differences in quantifying driving forces of the changes in carbon emissions and in future emissions projections.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 55099.

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Date of creation: 13 Dec 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55099

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Keywords: Climate change policy; CO2 emissions; emissions scenarios; decomposition analysis;

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  1. Ang, B. W., 2005. "The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 867-871, May.
  2. Ang, B.W. & Huang, H.C. & Mu, A.R., 2009. "Properties and linkages of some index decomposition analysis methods," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4624-4632, November.
  3. Shi, Anqing, 2003. "The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975-1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-42, February.
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  6. Ang, B.W. & Mu, A.R. & Zhou, P., 2010. "Accounting frameworks for tracking energy efficiency trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1209-1219, September.
  7. Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul & Iacopini, Giorgia & Anderson, Kevin & Bows, Alice & Mander, Sarah & Shackley, Simon, 2009. "Different scenarios for achieving radical reduction in carbon emissions: A decomposition analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1652-1666, April.
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