Stochastic Kaya model and its applications
AbstractThis paper develops a stochastic Kaya model. The elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to population, per capita GDP, energy efficiency, and fossil fuel dependence is estimated using the panel data of 132 countries from 1960 to 2010. As an application of the stochastic Kaya model, we investigate the achievement of each nation to the stabilization of carbon emissions with economic development, using a method of index decomposition analysis. In addition, carbon emissions are projected by 2050 using the model. One of the main findings is that assuming the unit elasticity for each driving force underestimates the scale effect (population change and economic growth) and overestimates the counteracting technology effect. This results in significant differences in quantifying driving forces of the changes in carbon emissions and in future emissions projections.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 55099.
Date of creation: 13 Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Climate change policy; CO2 emissions; emissions scenarios; decomposition analysis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
- Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
- Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2014-04-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2014-04-11 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2014-04-11 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-GER-2014-04-11 (German Papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ang, B. W., 2005. "The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 867-871, May.
- Ang, B.W. & Huang, H.C. & Mu, A.R., 2009. "Properties and linkages of some index decomposition analysis methods," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4624-4632, November.
- Shi, Anqing, 2003. "The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975-1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-42, February.
- Greening, Lorna A. & Davis, William B. & Schipper, Lee, 1998. "Decomposition of aggregate carbon intensity for the manufacturing sector: comparison of declining trends from 10 OECD countries for the period 1971-1991," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 43-65, February.
- Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
- Ang, B.W. & Mu, A.R. & Zhou, P., 2010. "Accounting frameworks for tracking energy efficiency trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1209-1219, September.
- Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul & Iacopini, Giorgia & Anderson, Kevin & Bows, Alice & Mander, Sarah & Shackley, Simon, 2009. "Different scenarios for achieving radical reduction in carbon emissions: A decomposition analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1652-1666, April.
- Brizga, Janis & Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus, 2013. "Drivers of CO2 emissions in the former Soviet Union: A country level IPAT analysis from 1990 to 2010," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 743-753.
- York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.