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Global Value Chains in the Current Trade Slowdown

Author

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  • Ferrantino, Michael J.

    (World Bank)

  • Taglioni, Daria

    (World Bank)

Abstract

Real growth in global trade has decelerated significantly since its sharp recovery in 2010. Year-on-year growth in global real trade decelerated from 13.3 percent at the end of the first quarter of 2010, to 9.9, 3.1, and 0.5 percent at the end of the first quarters of 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively, while picking back up to 3.9 percent in the year leading up to the fourth quarter of 2013. This aggregate deceleration in global trade includes absolute declines in real trade for many product categories and regions. In the wake of the Great Trade Collapse of 2008–9, understanding of the behavior of trade in slowdowns has improved. Among the many explanations offered for the Great Trade Collapse, including explanations related to uncertainty, trade financing, and new protectionist measures by governments, there has been a significant focus on whether the emergence of global value chains (GVCs) in international trade, and their behavior, are a contributing factor in trade slowdowns.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrantino, Michael J. & Taglioni, Daria, 2014. "Global Value Chains in the Current Trade Slowdown," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 138, pages 1-6, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:prmecp:ep138
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Escaith, Hubert & Lindenberg, Nannette & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2010. "International supply chains and trade elasticity in times of global crisis," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    2. Taglioni, Daria & Zavacka, Veronika, 2012. "Innocent bystanders : how foreign uncertainty shocks harm exporters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6226, The World Bank.
    3. Carlo Altomonte & Filippo Di Mauro & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Armando Rungi & Vincent Vicard, 2012. "Global Value Chains During the Great Trade Collapse: A Bullwhip Effect?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1131, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Veronika Zavacka, 2012. "The bullwhip effect and the Great Trade Collapse," Working Papers 148, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
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    Cited by:

    1. Evert Meijers & Martijn Burger & Masahisa Fujita & Nobuaki Hamaguchi, 2016. "Supply chain internationalization in East Asia: Inclusiveness and risks," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(1), pages 81-100, March.
    2. Peter H. Egger & Joseph Francois & Douglas R. Nelson, 2017. "The Role of Goods-Trade Networks for Services-Trade Volume," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 532-543, March.
    3. Georgios Angelidis & Charalambos Bratsas & Georgios Makris & Evangelos Ioannidis & Nikos C. Varsakelis & Ioannis E. Antoniou, 2021. "Global Value Chains of COVID-19 Materials: A Weighted Directed Network Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(24), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Gaulier, Guillaume & Sztulman, Aude & Ünal, Deniz, 2020. "Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in parts and components," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 219-236.
    5. Borin, Alessandro & Mancini, Michele, 2017. "Follow the Value Added: Tracking Bilateral Relations in Global Value Chains," MPRA Paper 82692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    7. Yuning Gao & Bo Meng & Gabriele Suder & Jiabai Ye & Yongping Sun, . "Making global value chains visible: Transnational corporations versus domestically owned firms," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    8. Christian Buelens & Marcel Tirpák, 2017. "Reading the Footprints: How Foreign Investors Shape Countries’ Participation in Global Value Chains," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(4), pages 561-584, December.
    9. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    10. Xuefeng Qian & Zhao Liu & Ying Pan, 2017. "China's Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(6), pages 65-83, November.
    11. Patrice Ollivaud & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2015. "Does the post-crisis weakness of global trade solely reflect weak demand?," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 269-267.
    12. Constantinescu,Ileana Cristina & Fernandes,Ana Margarida & Grover,Arti Goswami & Poupakis,Stavros & Reyes Ortega,Santiago, 2022. "Globally Engaged Firms in the COVID-19 Crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9991, The World Bank.
    13. Marco Giansoldati & Tullio Gregori, 2018. "Trade Collapses and Trade Slowdowns: Evidence from Some Central and Eastern European Countries," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 16(1 (Spring), pages 3-18.
    14. Halit Yanikkaya & Abdullah Altun, 2020. "The Impact of Global Value Chain Participation on Sectoral Growth and Productivity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-19, June.
    15. Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2016. "Breaking down world trade elasticities: a panel ECM approach," Globalization Institute Working Papers 275, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Szypulewska-Porczyńska Alina & Suska Magdalena, 2020. "Fifteen years of Poland’s membership of the European Union: Poland’s participation in the internal market for services," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 56(1), pages 3-19, March.
    17. David Haugh & Alexandre Kopoin & Elena Rusticelli & David Turner & Richard Dutu, 2016. "Cardiac Arrest or Dizzy Spell: Why is World Trade So Weak and What can Policy Do About It?," OECD Economic Policy Papers 18, OECD Publishing.
    18. Cyrille Schwellnus & Andreas Kappeler & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2017. "The Decoupling of Median Wages from Productivity in OECD Countries," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 32, pages 44-60, Spring.
    19. Sanjay Kalra, 2016. "6½ Decades of Global Trade and Income: “New Normal” or “Back to Normal” after GTC and GFC?," IMF Working Papers 2016/139, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Hao Xiao & Tianyang Sun & Bo Meng & Lihong Cheng, 2017. "Complex Network Analysis for Characterizing Global Value Chains in Equipment Manufacturing," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, January.
    21. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    22. Xiaosong Wang & Huan Wu & Le Li & Lu Liu, 2022. "Uncertainty, GVC participation and the export of Chinese firms," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 634-661, July.
    23. Sheba TEJANI & Sakiko FUKUDA‐PARR, 2021. "Gender and COVID‐19: Workers in global value chains," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 160(4), pages 649-667, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

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