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Modeling of Cash Flows from Nonperforming Loans in a Commercial Bank

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  • Devjak Srečko

    (Rizikomanagement d.o.o., Velike Lašče, Slovenia)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to derive a model for calculation of maturities and volumes of repayments that a bank may expect from nonretail nonperforming loans (hereafter NPLs). Expected inflows from nonretail NPLs follow a probability distribution, defined by size and timing of historic repayments of NPLs. Empirical analysis has shown that probability distribution of expected inflows from nonretail NPLs considerably deviates from symmetric distribution and is asymmetric to the right. Accuracy of derived model depends upon available data in banks about NPLs by corporate sectors and recovery rates by time intervals. The model in this paper is in interest of any bank and in particular of banks with a higher fraction of NPLs in their loan portfolio. Contribution of this paper to the added value in the area of liquidity risk management in banks is high because the remaining literature does not deliver other models for the same purpose.

Suggested Citation

  • Devjak Srečko, 2018. "Modeling of Cash Flows from Nonperforming Loans in a Commercial Bank," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 64(4), pages 3-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ngooec:v:64:y:2018:i:4:p:3-9:n:1
    DOI: 10.2478/ngoe-2018-0018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank; liquidity risk; cash flow modeling; credit risk; non-performing loans;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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