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Impact of Money Supply on Inflation Rate in Egypt: A VECM Approach

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  • Dekkiche Djamal

    (Research Laboratory in Financial Market Management Using Automated Media and Mathematics (GMFAMI), Relizane University, Relizane, Algeria)

Abstract

In this work, the research team employed a VECM regression model to evaluate the relationship between money supply and inflation rate (INF) in Egypt from 1990 to 2019. The model includes four independent variables: money supply (MS), imports (IMP), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and exchange rate (EXCH). A Johansen-Juselius co-integration test and a Vector Error Correction Model were used to determine the existence of long-term and short-term links between the variables. The results demonstrated the existence of co-integrating links between the variables. Aside from the effects of GDP, all independent factors had a positive effect on the inflation rate. Depending on the results, the money supply is the primary long-term predictor of the inflation rate in Egypt.

Suggested Citation

  • Dekkiche Djamal, 2022. "Impact of Money Supply on Inflation Rate in Egypt: A VECM Approach," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 36(1), pages 134-148, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ecobus:v:36:y:2022:i:1:p:134-148:n:9
    DOI: 10.2478/eb-2022-0009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; GDP; inflation rate; importations; money supply; VEC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P44 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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