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Financial liability stress tests: an approach based on the use of a rating migration matrix

Author

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  • Kleszcz Klaudia

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland)

  • Nehrebecka Natalia

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

The article addresses the issue of stress testing based on the probability of bankruptcy and a rating migration matrix. The analysis is conducted on a sample of listed companies in Poland in the years 1998–2016, and the forecasts are made for the years 2016–2018. Particular attention is paid to how the variable on which rating migration matrices are developed is defined. Stress tests are carried out on variables derived from rating migration matrices and economic indicators. The study provides information on the methodology for stress testing.

Suggested Citation

  • Kleszcz Klaudia & Nehrebecka Natalia, 2020. "Financial liability stress tests: an approach based on the use of a rating migration matrix," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 7(54), pages 12-32, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ceuecj:v:7:y:2020:i:54:p:12-32:n:2
    DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2020-0002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nehrebecka Natalia, 2018. "An Evaluation of the Discriminatory Power of Selected Polish Bankruptcy Prediction Models As Part of the Validation Process," Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach, Sciendo, vol. 23(4), pages 63-88, December.
    2. Yang, Bill Huajian & Du, Zunwei, 2015. "Stress Testing and Modeling of Rating Migration under the Vasicek Model Framework - Empirical approaches and technical implementation," MPRA Paper 65168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
    4. Acharya, Viral & Engle, Robert & Pierret, Diane, 2014. "Testing macroprudential stress tests: The risk of regulatory risk weights," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 36-53.
    5. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    6. Thomas Philippon & Pierre Pessarossi & Boubacar Camara, 2017. "Backtesting European Stress Tests," NBER Working Papers 23083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Maria Beitz & Matthias Ehrhardt, 2011. "A New Method Of Stress Testing Investment Products," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Michael CS Wong (ed.), The Risk Of Investment Products From Product Innovation to Risk Compliance, chapter 10, pages 225-240, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Tamás Kristóf, 2021. "Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stress tests; bankruptcy risk; rating migration matrices; stress scenario;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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