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An Evaluation of the Discriminatory Power of Selected Polish Bankruptcy Prediction Models As Part of the Validation Process

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  • Nehrebecka Natalia

    (University of Warsaw, Narodowy Bank Polski, Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

The purposes of this article are to present validation techniques according to their discriminatory power, while indicating the reservations about such techniques, and to check the adjustment of the existing Polish bankruptcy prediction models in the context of their discriminatory power. This is the first study that performs a validation of such models. Based on the analysis, it was found that the fifth model developed by Hadasik was characterised by avery high discriminatory power. The decision was made to base the evaluation of the discriminatory power of the modules on the Gini index, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, the H measure, the information value (IV), and the precision of the estimates of bankruptcy.

Suggested Citation

  • Nehrebecka Natalia, 2018. "An Evaluation of the Discriminatory Power of Selected Polish Bankruptcy Prediction Models As Part of the Validation Process," Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach, Sciendo, vol. 23(4), pages 63-88, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:finsci:v:23:y:2018:i:4:p:63-88:n:5
    DOI: 10.15611/fins.2018.4.05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kleszcz Klaudia & Nehrebecka Natalia, 2020. "Financial liability stress tests: an approach based on the use of a rating migration matrix," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 7(54), pages 12-32, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bankruptcy prediction; discriminatory power; validation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics

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