IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ura/ecregj/v1y2015i3p241-255.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Correlation Assessment of Tax System Risk and Profitability in the Russian Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Malkina

    (Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorod)

  • Rodion Balakin

    (Lobachevsky State University of Nizhniy Novgorod)

Abstract

The subject of the article is the risk, returnm and efficiency of the tax systems in the regions of the Russian Federation. Research methods: deflating GRP and tax revenues at regional level; calculating the standard deviations; G. Markowitz portfolio approach; W. Sharpe ratio calculating; correlation and regression analysis. Results obtained: 1) comparative risk profile of various taxes and their groups in the Russian Federation; 2) clustering the Russian regions in terms of risk and return of tax systems; 3) regression between the risk of regional tax systems, relative scale of regional economics and tax return based on panel data of the Russian regions in 2006-2012; 4) ranking of the RF regions on the effectiveness of their tax systems, estimated by W. Sharpe ratio. In the paper, the authors have concluded: 1) all taxes (tax group) collected in the Russian regions demonstrate a positive statistical relationship between return and risk, but with different correlation; 2) the risk of regional tax system depends on the structure of tax revenues in given region, the risks of collected taxes and the covariance of different taxes revenues to each other, and joint effect of these factors is estimated by means of portfolio approach by G. Markowitz; 3) the correlation between return and risk of the tax systems of the subjects of Russian Federation considering the scale of regional economics accounts for 75 %; 4) the risk of the Russian tax system is significantly provided by 19 major high-risk regions with more than 65 share in the total state tax revenues; 5) the effectiveness of regional tax systems estimated by the Sharpe ratio depends on both the objective and subjective factors affecting the yield and volatility of tax revenues in a region. Obtained results can be used by researchers in further dynamic and comparative analysis of regional tax systems’ risk and return, as well as in identifying the reserves for increasing the regional tax policy effectiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Malkina & Rodion Balakin, 2015. "Correlation Assessment of Tax System Risk and Profitability in the Russian Regions," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 241-255.
    • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2015:i:3:p:241-255
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economyofregion.ru/Data/Issues/ER2015/September_2015/ERSeptember2015_241_255.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wilford, D. Sykes, 2012. "True Markowitz or assumptions we break and why it matters," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 93-101.
    2. Thomas Garrett, 2009. "Evaluating state tax revenue variability: a portfolio approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 243-246.
    3. Alison Felix, 2008. "The growth and volatility of state tax revenue sources in the Tenth District," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 93(Q III), pages 63-88.
    4. Estelle P. Dauchy & Christopher Balding, 2013. "Federal Income Tax Revenue Volatility Since 1966," Working Papers w0198, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    5. BUNESCU Liliana & COMANICIU Carmen, 2014. "Analysis Of Correlation Between Tax Revenues And Other Economic Indicators In European Union Member States," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 9(1), pages 24-34, April.
    6. Gary C. Cornia & Ray D. Nelson, 2010. "State tax revenue growth and volatility," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct, pages 23-58.
    7. Baer, Werner & Galvão Jr., Antonio Fialho, 2008. "Tax burden, government expenditures and income distribution in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 345-358, May.
    8. Fukuda, Kosei, 2008. "Empirical evidence on intergenerational inequality of tax burdens in the U.S. and Japan," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2214-2220, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marina Malkina, 2019. "How Change in Industry Mix Can Improve the Financial Performance of Regional Economies: Evidence from the Portfolio Approach," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(6), pages 1561-1575.
    2. Marina Malkina, 2017. "Influence of the Industrial Structure of Economy on the Risk Level of Russian Regions' Tax Systems," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(6), pages 2025-2035.
    3. Marina Malkina & Rodion Balakin, 2020. "Risks of Regional Tax Systems and Their Portfolio Decomposition: The Case of Modern Russia," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 68(6), pages 995-1009.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joshua C. Hall & Antonios M. Koumpias, 2018. "Growth And Variability Of School District Income Tax Revenues: Is Tax Base Diversification A Good Idea For School Financing?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(4), pages 678-691, October.
    2. Joshua Hall & Antonis Koumpias, 2015. "The Volatility of School District Income Tax Revenues: Is Tax Base Diversification a Good Idea?," Working Papers 15-14, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    3. Marina Malkina & Rodion Balakin, 2020. "Risks of Regional Tax Systems and Their Portfolio Decomposition: The Case of Modern Russia," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 68(6), pages 995-1009.
    4. Raffaele Lagravinese & Paolo Liberati & Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "The growth and variability of local taxes: An application to the Italian regions," Working Papers. Collection B: Regional and sectoral economics 1601, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    5. Siamak Goudarzi & Mohammad Javad Jafari & Amir Afsar, 2017. "A Hybrid Model for Portfolio Optimization Based on Stock Clustering and Different Investment Strategies," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 602-608.
    6. Karagiannidis, Iordanis & Sykes Wilford, D., 2015. "Modeling fund and portfolio risk: A bi-modal approach to analyzing risk in turbulent markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 19-26.
    7. Marina Yurievna Malkina, 2018. "Instability of Financial Return of Regional Economies and Its Determinants," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 3, pages 88-114.
    8. Higgins, Sean & Lustig, Nora, 2016. "Can a poverty-reducing and progressive tax and transfer system hurt the poor?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 63-75.
    9. Iordanis Karagiannidis & D. Sykes Wilford, 2015. "Modeling fund and portfolio risk: A bi‐modal approach to analyzing risk in turbulent markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 19-26, April.
    10. Jorge Martínez-Vázquez & Violeta Vulovic & Blanca Moreno Dodson, 2012. "The Impact of Tax and Expenditure Policies on Income Distribution: Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 200(1), pages 95-130, March.
    11. Asa Ferguson & Liam Marshall & Jonathan C. Rork, 2023. "Understanding Forecasting Errors in State Personal Income Tax Revenues: The Role of Capital Gains," Public Finance Review, , vol. 51(5), pages 649-668, September.
    12. Teresa Famulska & Jan Kaczmarzyk & Malgorzata Grzaba, 2020. "The Relationship Between Tax Revenue and Public Social Expenditure in the EU Member States," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1136-1156.
    13. Urooj Khan & N. Bugra Ozel, 2016. "Real Activity Forecasts Using Loan Portfolio Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 895-937, June.
    14. Aleksandra L. Osmolovskaya-Suslina & Sofiia R. Borisova, 2023. "Non-resource Revenues to the Consolidated Budget: Analysis by Types of Economic Activity," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 8-26, December.
    15. Chimilila, Cyril, 2017. "Forecasting Tax Revenue and its Volatility in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 5(1), January.
    16. Cut Risya Varlitya & Raja Masbar & Abd. Jamal & Muhammad Nasir, 2023. "Do Regional Macroeconomics Variables Influence the Income Inequality in Indonesia?," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 180-199.
    17. Manuel A.R. da Fonseca, 2011. "Inflation and Stabilization in Brazil," Chapters, in: Werner Baer & David Fleischer (ed.), The Economies of Argentina and Brazil, chapter 20, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Sean Higgins & Nora Lustig, 2015. "Can Poverty-Reducing and Progressive Tax and Transfer System Hurt the Poor?," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 1333, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    19. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2010. "Energy Prices and Alberta Government Revenue Volatility," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 313, November.
    20. Yota Deli & Derek Lambert & Martina Lawless & Kieran McQuinn & Edgar L. W. Morgenroth, 2017. "How Sensitive is Irish Income Tax Revenue to Underlying Economic Activity?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 317-336.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2015:i:3:p:241-255. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alexey Naydenov (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.economyofregion.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.